The Boston Red Sox have come to the same conclusion that many teams have in recent years: wins in April and May matter just as much as those later on in the year. As that reality has dawned on the majority of clubs around baseball, the days of prospects having their service time manipulated are going the way of the dinosaur.
Instead, savvy teams have decided the best path forward is to lock up their generational talents long-term. In what could be a win-win scenario, clubs are taking the gamble of providing these talented youngsters with long-term security while ensuring they will remain with the organization through their primes, buying out some free-agent years in the process.
In the case of Kristian Campbell, MLB.com's No. 6 overall prospect, it would behoove the Red Sox to lock him up sooner rather than later. It's early, but so far the versatile wunderkind as been as good as advertised with a .375/.500/.688 line through five games.
The Red Sox are no stranger to making calculated gambles to lock up young talents. Just last year, the club awarded centerfielder Ceddanne Rafaela an eight-year $50 million extension after just 49 days of major league service time.
Rafaela is talented, however, his pedigree pales in comparison to that of Campbell. The last time the Sox had a player who matched Campbell's versatility, talent, and athleticism was Mookie Betts. And if history serves as a lesson, they won't make the same mistake twice.
The longer the Red Sox wait, the more expensive Kristian Campbell will become
Two deals from recent memory serve as potential starting points for what a Campbell extension might look like, and it certainly won't be cheap. While he debuted younger than Campbell, the 11-year $182 million extension the Tampa Bay Rays gave Wander Franco at the end of his debut season in 2021 may be a signpost for what's to come.
While the Rays have come to regret that deal due to the awful off-field allegations levied against Franco, from a purely baseball sense, the money is in line with what Campbell may command if the team were to lock him up this season.
If Boston chooses to wait until Campbell has a couple of seasons under his belt, the price could skyrocket even higher. That's exactly what happened to the Royals, who allowed Bobby Witt Jr to play two full seasons before rewarding him with an 11-year, $288.7 million extension.
Waiting until a top prospect proves his worth in the bigs might make the extension safer, but it could come with a much heftier price tag. Campbell, being slightly older than Witt Jr, and a couple of years older than Franco at the time of their debuts, might depress the overall price tag and years some, but the Red Sox will still be looking at a deal nearing a decade in length and with a price tag over $175 million.
An 11-year, $225 million deal might be the perfect middle ground between parameters set by the Franco deal and the Witt Jr. deal, and might be just enough to keep Campbell in Boston long-term should the Sox act quickly enough.