With the Winter Meetings over and the Red Sox in the thick of several different possible signings and deals, one player who may have the biggest impact of all for Boston is already a member of the roster.
Center fielder/shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela will embark on his second full season as an everyday player for the Red Sox and it may not be a stretch for the Sox to hope for an uptick in his performance, similar to the progression of another former Red Sox infielder/outfielder, Mookie Betts.
Betts' first full season with the Red Sox came in 2015. He played in 145 games, hit .291 with 18 home runs and an OBP of .341 and added 21 steals. He became spent most of his time in center field and had a fielding percentage of .989 with 11 outfield assists.
Rafaela hit .246 this season with 15 home runs and an OBP of .275 with 19 steals. Rafaela, like Betts, transitioned from an infielder to almost exclusively an outfielder. He played 88 games in the outfield and compiled a fielding percentage of .992 with five assists.
In 2016, Betts’ batting average jumped nearly 20 points, hitting .318 with an OPB of .363. He also saw a major jump in power in year two, jumping from 18 home runs to 31 long balls. Betts also added a few more steals to his total, swiping 26 bags in 2016. He played 2016 exclusively in right field and had a fielding percentage of .997 with 14 assists.
He would go on to win an MVP in 2018 and has been among baseball’s top five players for the last six seasons. Betts’ ability to read the strike zone and work the count certainly helped improve his power numbers. He has been equally as impressive as a fielder, arguably the best right fielder in baseball for nearly a decade.
Rafaela’s biggest challenge this year will be learning the strike zone and developing patience. He struck out over 150 times in 2024 and was far too often down 0-2 in the counts, unable to lay off high fastballs. He has flashed the power that could translate into similar home run numbers to Betts but the key will be his ability to get in better hitter’s counts, something he struggled with this past season.
Ceddanne Rafaela's path to a Mookie Betts-esque surge for the Red Sox in 2025
A look at the pitch counts in Rafaela’s at-bats last season speaks to his difficulty with pitch selection. Rafaela had 101 ABs down 0-2 in the count and hit just .139 in those situations with a whopping 52 strikeouts. He hit just .167 in the 90 at-bats that he faced a 1-2 count with an additional 48 strikeouts. Amazingly, Rafaela had just 20 at-bats all season in which he was ahead in the count either 2-0 or 2-1. His best performances came either 1-0 in the count or 1-1. In those situations, Rafaela hit a combined .378 in 78 at-bats with 13 extra-base hits out of 29 hits overall. Discipline will be the name of the game for the young slugger next season.
The Red Sox can reasonably expect an improvement in Rafaela’s game in 2025. If he follows the trajectory of Betts or even gets within earshot of Betts’ improvement in year two, he projects to be a .260 or better hit with 25+ home run power and the ability to steal close to 30 bases. It would also benefit Rafaela if the Red Sox committed to him exclusively in the outfield. As it stands now, he projects to be the centerfielder. Should the Red Sox make a move for an outfielder (say, Teoscar Hernández or even Anthony Santander), Rafaela looks to project to be the team’s right fielder with Jarren Duran moving to center.
The Red Sox have spent the offseason trying to find ways to improve their roster, understandably so. However, they have one player on their current roster that should provide them with increased value both as a hitter and an outfielder in 2025.