Unfortunately for the Boston Red Sox, the 2024 season has not gone to plan. With the club's hopes of October baseball fading by the day, many fans have turned their focus to 2025, hoping the front office will construct a competitive team that rightfully brings postseason baseball back to Boston.
And, after a rocky first season as President of Baseball Operations, it would be fair to say that Craig Breslow and Co. would like to turn the Red Sox’s misfortunes into postseason success. Of course, all of this is easier said and done, but if Breslow wants to win the approval of Red Sox Nation, he needs to invest in the team’s most significant defect: starting and relief pitching.
The Red Sox's pitching staff is relatively young and inexperienced, and not many of their hurlers had ever pitched full seasons early in their careers. The rotation and the 'pen both experienced surges and slumps, but the rough stretches have defined the pitching staff.
2 areas where the Red Sox need to invest this winter
Red Sox Struggling Starting pitching
It's no secret that going into 2024, Boston's starting rotation was starved for talent and depth, a problem only exacerbated by season-ending injuries to Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock. And, while the Sox's pitching coach Andrew Bailey was able to work wonders with a cobbled-together rotation early on in the season, Breslow's failure to add any significant depth came back to bite the club hard in the second half.
Since the All-Star break, Boston's staff has pitched to a 4.86 ERA and a FIP of 4.87, only trailing behind teams like the Rays, Angels, and White Sox. The second half has also exposed the rotations' trouble with the long ball, as Boston is currently tied with the Angels for the most homers (49) given up by American League teams.
In addition to struggling to keep the ball in the yard, walks have become a significant problem for the rotation. Sox starters' walks per nine have ballooned in the second half from a 2.5 BB/9 to a 3.01 BB/9. Much of this regression can be due to fatigue and pitching overload, a symptom of Boston's inactivity to add pitching last offseason.
Overall, the problem is simple: if Breslow wants to build a true championship contender in Boston, he'll need to acquire quality starters who can pitch deep into games and limit the amount of walks and home runs they give up.
If the Red Sox wish to acquire a true ace this winter, Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes would fit the bill perfectly. Burnes, who is set to become a free agent at the end of the season, has pitched to a 2.95 ERA, 3.57 FIP, a WHIP of 1.11, and an ERA+ of 123 in 189.1 innings of work.
Burnes would also significantly help Boston with its home run problems. Since 2021, Burnes has had a 0.88 HR/9, ranking him 16th among all major league starters. Burnes also excels at limiting traffic on the bases — since 2021, his WHIP of 1.02 has ranked in the top five for all big league starters, a period which also saw him top the rankings for all National League starters in 2023. In addition to his proven quality, Burnes is also a workhorse. He has finished in the top four for innings pitched with 745. Overall, a profile like Burnes' would fit the Red Sox perfectly.
Boston's Bad Bullpen
While the Sox rotation has struggled mightily in the second half, much of Boston’s second-half collapse is due to the complete crumbling of the Boston bullpen. Leading up to the break, the Red Sox bullpen was among the American League’s best, posting a 3.66 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and a WHIP of 1.21. However, similar to the rotation, fatigue and injuries began to mount up, and once the second half started, the bullpen took a complete nosedive.
Since the start of the second half, the bullpen has sported a paltry 6.21 ERA, a FIP of 5.31, and a WHIP of 1.61. In this same period, the bullpen also blew 15 saves, the most in the AL. All in all, Boston’s bullpen requires significant investment this winter, as, in addition to obvious talent concerns, key contributors like Chris Martin and closer Kenley Jansen are set to leave in free agency this winter.
While countless relievers will become available this winter, one option that would be ideal for the Red Sox is Phillies reliever Carlos Estévez. In 52.2 innings, Estévez has amassed a 2.22 ERA, a FIP of 3.15, and an ERA+ of 191. He's also great at limiting walks and base runners, with his 1.54 BB/9 and WHIP of 0.816 being the eighth-best in all of baseball. Estévez would be an excellent option for Boston as a vital late-inning reliever.
The Red Sox's lack of pitching talent and depth has been the chief cause of their late-season collapse. It is paramount that Breslow and the Sox brass learn from their past inactivity and make an effort to invest in pitching this winter. Without it, Boston will once again be deprived of October baseball in 2025.