3 big-name free agent pitchers Red Sox could sign based on likelihood

The Boston Red Sox's pitching woes are no secret. Their hurlers have allowed 4.78 runs per game this year, the fifth-most in MLB.

Boston needs to add some big-time arms to stay competitive in the brutal AL East going forward. The upcoming offseason is a critical opportunity to do just that.

However, this team isn't quite win-now mode. Many key pieces, like Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran, are still young, the farm system is promising, and there’s a lot of uncommitted payroll for next season. All of this is to say that the Red Sox should focus on pitchers who can contribute for several seasons to come, not just in 2025.

With that in mind, these are the best targets for the Red Sox this offseason, broken into three categories: best overall, reach, and risk.

3 potential Red Sox free agent pitching targets

Best overall: Max Fried

Max Fried is one of the few homegrown Braves who didn’t receive a mammoth extension before reaching his sixth year of service time. He'll hit the open market after the 2024 season.

With a sparkling 3.11 career ERA and a 3.49 metric through 159.2 innings this season, he’s long been one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He has consistently excelled at inducing weak contact, a valuable asset at hitter-friendly Fenway. At 30 years old, Fried can contribute for Boston for several years, and although he won’t be cheap, he should be a more affordable option than Corbin Burnes, the star of this year’s free agent pitching class.

Reach: Corbin Burnes

This category was a slam dunk. Burnes' nearly unmatched pedigree over the past four seasons (and the fact that he’s still just 29 years old) makes him a great fit for any team. He’s thrown at least 167 innings every year since 2021, with a 3.00 ERA and 1.026 WHIP over that span.

However, since Burnes is without a doubt the biggest pitching prize of the upcoming offseason, he won’t come cheap – some estimates have him signing a long-term contract at upwards of $35 million a year. Furthermore, there’s already been heavy speculation that he’ll end up signing with the Mets. Landing Burnes might not be the most realistic outcome for the Red Sox, especially given the front office's stinginess in recent years, but Sox fans can dream.

Risk: Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler has been riddled with injuries over the past three years, with less than stellar numbers in his limited innings in those seasons. But he was electric in his first four years as a starter, with a 2.82 ERA, a 0.989 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings over that span. Buehler's 2024 season hasn't gone as well as he's used to, though, and he's posted a 5.54 ERA with 54 strikeouts and 26 walks in 65 innings.

Committing to Buehler long-term would be unnecessarily risky, but a prove-it deal with options could bear fruit. Such a deal should be affordable given his injury history and recent track record, no doubt a selling point. What's more, he's still just 30, so if the experiment goes well, he can be a contributor for the Sox moving forward. His potential may be hibernating, but it’s there nonetheless.

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