Projecting a Red Sox-Corbin Burnes contract in free agency

The Boston Red Sox have avoided long-term contracts for starting pitchers after they'd been burned in the past.

Despite their public reluctance to sign starters long-term, the Red Sox have still been named as a top landing spot for soon-to-be free-agent ace Corbin Burnes.

Juan Soto will be the most coveted, expensive target for a select few clubs this coming offseason with Burnes not far behind. He's a career 3.25 ERA pitcher over seven seasons in the big leagues, and he's an elite strike thrower who would bolster any starting rotation nicely. He's collected 1027 strikeouts to 249 walks in 884.2 innings in his career.

The Red Sox have gotten more looks at Burnes this season than ever before after he was traded to the Orioles to secure a return for his former club, the Brewers, during the 2023-24 offseason. He's logged a 3.18 ERA, 157 strikeouts and 43 walks in 175.1 innings with Baltimore this year. The veteran's strikeout rate is down a few ticks from last season, but he's improved his walk rate to even the decrease a bit.

What would a Red Sox contract offer to Corbin Burnes look like?

When he hits free agency at the end of the Orioles' campaign, Burnes will be 30 years old, two years older than Yankees ace Gerrit Cole signed his nine-year, $324 million contract with New York. Burnes and Cole have similar stats through the first seven years of their respective careers — Cole touts better stats on paper, but Burnes has a Cy Young to his name that Cole never had while he sought a contract.

Burnes and Cole also have the same agent, the infamous Scott Boras. Boras is known for his aggressive negotiations in free agency and he usually knows how to get the most money out of front offices. His approach has backfired before, most notably last offseason with Jordan Montgomery, whose career trajectory has changed dramatically since his recent foray into free agency.

There are already dozens of predictions for Burnes' contract out there and the prices vary dramatically. Spotrac projects his average annual value (AAV) to reach over $30 million. MLB insider Jeff Passan believes Burnes will seek eight years, and Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report predicted an eight-year, $288 million deal for the righty.

If the Sox can get to Burnes before another club does this winter, an eight-year, $300 million deal could get him to Boston. The $300 million metric falls in the middle of the range of contracts proposed for Burnes' services.

The Red Sox front office has shown no inclination to spend so aggressively in recent years — it took years to get Rafael Devers a contract in the range that Burnes might request — but a new chief baseball officer and top prospects reaching the major league level may be able to change ownership's recent spending philosophy.

Craig Breslow will be fully settled into his new job and will hopefully have more resources to work with compared to last offseason. He also hopes to revamp Boston's pitching program alongside new pitching coach, Andrew Bailey, and Burnes has previously stated that he'd like to serve as a mentor to a developing staff. Few Sox fans are optimistic about a change in the front office's priorities this coming offseason, but not at least trying to sign Burnes could be a death sentence for the Red Sox among fans.

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