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Depressing stat shows how much 'run prevention' strategy has let Red Sox down

May 16, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu (52) hits a single against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
May 16, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu (52) hits a single against the Atlanta Braves in the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Over a quarter of the way through the season, the Boston Red Sox's offense is still dragging them down with no signs of a turnaround coming. Boston has scored three runs or less in its last eight games and lost its last three series.

The Red Sox's offense is one of the only things holding them back at this point — Sox pitchers have posted a 2.69 ERA over the last 15 days, the fourth-lowest metric in the league over that span. Boston's defense leads the league with 40 defensive runs saved and only the Los Angeles Dodgers come anywhere close to that number. But the offense can't pull itself together enough to deliver with any degree of consistency.

The Sox's offense has produced multiple disappointing statistics so far this season, but one recently tweeted by Pat Brown of Audacy's "Play Tessie" podcast really throws it's troubles into perspective. If the Red Sox had a league average offense that produced 4.5 runs per game through May 18, they would have a 32-14 record. It would be the best in MLB.

After the Red Sox missed out on signing Alex Bregman, Craig Breslow doubled-down on adding pitching (he signed Ranger Suarez the following day) and quality defense (as Caleb Durbin has provided) in hopes of accounting for a less-productive offense. But not even the best defense in the league and one of the deepest rotations can dig Boston out of the hole its bats routinely dig.

With league average offense, the Red Sox would have the best record in MLB

The Red Sox's offense has about every issue in the book, from lack of power to lack of length. Boston crushed 10 doubles during its three-game series in Atlanta but went 2-for-25 with runners in scoring position. A home run hitter who can deliver runs on one swing could've made all the difference in those situations (as the Red Sox saw with Willson Contreras' May 16 game-winning homer).

Craig Breslow's roster construction or failure to add a slugger to the lineup isn't Boston's only issue. Quite a few bats have regressed from their 2025 production, including Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, Carlos Narváez and Roman Anthony. Story and Duran's struggles are particularly rough for the Red Sox's lineup — Story was the team's 2025 home run leader and the front office was banking on him to deliver some of the power it missed on the free agent market, and Duran hasn't been getting on base as often as Boston has gotten used to (his on-base percentage has dropped to .243 from .332 last season) and therefore not scoring as much.

A lot will have to go right for the Red Sox to redeem their ugly start in the first quarter of the season and most of those changes are offensive improvements. Story is on the injured list and could be for the next six-10 weeks if he undergoes sports hernia surgery, but Duran needs to step up to the demands of his role as a veteran and spark plug. The Red Sox could also be forced to make a trade to stay in the playoff race— even after their disastrous start, they're still just three games out of a Wild Card spot in the underwhelming American League.

One thing's for sure: the "run prevention" strategy doesn't work with the most underwhelming Red Sox offense in recent memory. Kyle Schwarber, Eugenio Suárez, Pete Alonso, or even Munetaka Murakami would've made a world of difference in Boston, but now the Red Sox might have to settle for a desperation move to get their offense closer to the league average. If Breslow still has a job in the front office next offseason, hopefully he'll have learned that he allocated his 2025-26 resources in the wrong places.

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