Red Sox “extremely unlikely” to re-sign free agent closer Craig Kimbrel

As Spring Training begins, the Red Sox are still without a closer and Craig Kimbrel likely isn’t coming back. So how will his departure affect the bullpen?

Elite free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned as Spring Training is in full action and Opening Day is just a little over a month away. That means the Red Sox still have a giant question mark in that closer position of their bullpen.

Red Sox ownership has expressed that re-signing Kimbrel is “extremely unlikely” as Chairman Tom Werner put it, according to Masslive.com’s Chris Cotillo. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has been saying all offseason that they have no plans for a “large expenditure for a closer”.

So if the Red Sox really do let Kimbrel go, what does that mean for the Red Sox bullpen and who will step up as closer?

I believe that there won’t be one closer, but rather a closer by committee situation, meaning a constant variation of who closes out games. Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier will likely take the majority of the save opportunities.

I also think that knuckleballer Steven Wright could emerge as an intriguing option to close out games. Trying to mount a 9th inning comeback against that dancing knuckleball would certainly not be easy for the opposing teams. Plus, the Red Sox have said that Wright will be used more as a reliever in the bullpen rather than a starter going forward.

But losing Kimbrel wouldn’t only impact the closer role in the Red Sox bullpen, it would shake up the whole ‘pen. As I mentioned, Barnes and Brasier would likely be closing the majority of games, meaning one or both of them wouldn’t be able to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning as set-up guys.

That means the Red Sox would have to rely on guys like Heath Hembree who is always unpredictable, Tyler Thornburg whose health and effectiveness are big uncertainty, or Bobby Poyner and Colten Brewer who are both inexperienced and unproven at the major league level. The only other potential late-inning guy I actually trust is Brandon Workman, but even he can be unpredictable.

Plus, we can’t assume Brasier will be just as good as he was last season. He’s 31 years old and that was his first season in the MLB for more than 9 innings. There’s no telling how he’ll perform this season.

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The Red Sox are taking a major risk by letting Kimbrel leave and not signing anyone else. They’re taking a gamble that they’ll get the best case scenario in which all these pitchers will stay healthy and pitch the way they did in their best years.

They’re betting that Thornburg pitches the way he did before the Sox acquired him and before he got injured, that Brasier pitches like he did last season or better, that Barnes doesn’t crumble under the pressure of closing, and that everyone else is good enough to pitch in late innings when those guys aren’t available.

The Sox could also be counting on Brewer or Poyner having breakout seasons and helping the bullpen, or Carson Smith working his way back up to the MLB and pitching as he did in Seattle. They’re probably also hoping prospect Durbin Feltman shines in the minors to the point where he can contribute to the Red Sox as early as this season.

There’s still a very small chance that the Red Sox end up re-signing Craig Kimbrel after all since the free agent market has been very slow and he could be willing to sign for a lot less than his original asking price. Plus, there doesn’t seem to be a team out there interested in Kimbrel where he fits as well as he does with the Red Sox.

But as I said, without Kimbrel, everything in the Red Sox bullpen is unknown and risky. Sox fans can only hope everything works out in their favor this upcoming season.