Red Sox: Eduardo Rodriguez becoming a front line starter?

After a shaky start to the season, Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez has seemed to dial himself in, and perhaps this is what we can expect from here on out.

“ERod” has been a vital piece to this Red Sox rotation, helping the Red Sox to lead MLB in wins thus far. He has been on a roll lately, with an 8-1 record, an ERA down to 3.64, and a WHIP of 1.24. It is clear from these numbers that Eduardo Rodriguez was able to settle down after a rough start to the season This included two games in which he gave up 5 earned runs to the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers respectively.

Since that start on May 5th against the Rangers, Rodriguez has yet to give up more then 3 earned runs in a start. And he did that only once to the Oakland Athletics. To go along with Rodriguez’s ability to avoid giving up runs lately, he is looking at career best numbers in K% (26.6%). And his BB% (7.5%) is in line to be at the top of his career numbers as well.

Red Sox fans have seen stretches of a dominant Eduardo Rodriguez before. Perhaps the best evidence being his performance last season before injuring himself in the Camden Yards bullpen before a start. He then put up mere pedestrian performances the rest of the season. So what can Rodriguez attribute his newfound success to? And can Red Sox fans expect this type of performance to continue? Looking at some of his peripheral statistics may help us find an answer.

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In the past I have been a big advocate of FIP in determining a pitcher’s performance. I’ve found this to be a great indicator of figuring out possible regression or positive-regression. If you want to take a look at his FIP (3.56) and xFIP (3.66) and compare those with his ERA, it is expected that what we have seen so far from Rodriguez is what we can continue to expect. Recently though, I have been utilizing SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA). It helps gauge a pitcher’s skill level and how well they actually pitched. Essentially, SIERA is an even deeper way of digging into which pitchers are the most skilled.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s SIERA currently stands at a 3.54, which puts him at 25th in the MLB. To date, Rodriguez’s pitching performances have him as the 25th best pitcher in MLB by this metric. Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching like a low-end number one/high end number two pitcher for the Red Sox rotation. And his SIERA indicates that he has the potential to keep up this performance throughout the season.

This uptick in his performance may have to do with his utilization of his Cutter more this season. A pitch that he had decidedly given up on at the beginning of 2017, Rodriguez has implemented it back into his artillery. This season, “ERod” has been throwing his Cutter right around 15% of the time. In turn it has allowed him to use his fastball about that much less. This created an increase in the efficiency of his fastball. What it has also done is allow him to throw his slider less then he has in recent seasons, and for a much greater efficiency against batters then in the past.

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Eduardo Rodriguez definitely has the ability to keep up his performance for the remainder of the season. This is evidenced by his strong peripheral statistics and the clear adjustments that he has made. This is important as the league continues to try and adapt and learn his tendencies and approach. What is going to be Rodriguez’s biggest hurdle to overcome will be his ability to stay healthy over the course of the grueling 162 game season. Having never been able to pitch more then 140 innings in one season (137 last season) or more than 30 starts (24 last season), it is hard to say that ERod is going to be able to make it through the season without issue. Barring a short DL stint at some point, ERod has the skill and potential to finish this season as the Red Sox second best starting pitcher.

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