Red Sox: J.D. Martinez’ hot start has a chance to get even better
By Connor Perry
J.D. Martinez is off to a great start for the Boston Red Sox and there’s a chance that he can play even better then he has been.
The Boston Red Sox have gotten off to a blistering start, having an MLB best 25 wins, holding off the also hot New York Yankees for the lead in the AL East. Many of the Red Sox players from last year have gotten off to a much better start, and J.D. Martinez has made an immediate impact on this lineup.
While the addition of Martinez was seen as a much-needed power bat in the Red Sox lineup, it seems to be much more than that. Mookie Betts is getting a lot of much-deserved attention smacking an MLB leading 36 Runs,13 HR’s, and .355 BA, Martinez is off to an almost equally impressive start.
After homering last night, JD Martinez is on pace to hit 35 home runs and drive in 127 runs. No one is talking about that because Mookie Betts homered in his third straight game and is on pace to hit 66 home runs and drive in 132 runs out of the LEADOFF SPOT. pic.twitter.com/Z8w6H6speq
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) May 5, 2018
To the surprise of some, Martinez is actually leading the Red Sox in hits with 44 compared to Mookie’s 39. Along with Martinez’ 44 hits, he’s hit 8 home runs with 27 RBI’s and a .349 BA. What makes his start even more impressive is that he is not showing any signs of slowing down either, with 3 home runs already through 6 games in May and a .400 BA.
J.D. Martinez in his last 21 games: .415/.462/.707, 6 HRs, 6 2Bs, 17 RBIs. BABIP of .500
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) May 7, 2018
If you look even closer at some of Martinez’ peripheral stats, it shows that there is definitely an opportunity for Martinez to hit more homers, and with evidence from last year, we know that he has the ability to hit them in bunches. From watching Martinez this year, it seems as though he changed his approach through the first month of the season during the cold weather.
J.D. Martinez through the first month:
2017– *FB% (46.5), **BABIP (.229), BA (.271), HR (8)
2018– FB% (32.9%), BABIP (.446), BA (.337), HR (5)
*Fly Ball %– fly ball/balls in play, League average- 35%
**Batting Average on Balls in Play, League average-.300
Through the first month of the season, Martinez has a ridiculous .446 BABIP which means that he has been getting pretty lucky with his hits. He should end up around his career mark of .345, so expect his batting average go down a little.
But what makes me really excited is the amount of power I think we can still expect from Martinez. Looking at his FB% from his first month both seasons, it has been clear that Martinez has not been trying to put the ball into the air as much. Instead, Martinez has looked to put the ball into the gaps, in credit to his amazing bat control. A lot of this has to do with the cold weather through the first month of the season, which causes the ball to die in the air, making home runs during the summer routine fly balls in March.
As the season continues to progress, I expect to see a trend very similar to what Martinez did last season. The weather will continue to warm up, and Martinez’s FB% will go up as well, which in turn should result in lots of home runs. Martinez currently has a FB% of 32.2%, compared to last years FB% of 43.2%. And in his ridiculous closing month to the season where he hit 13 HRs, he had a FB% of 47.2%!
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I expect Martinez’s average to go down as the season progresses, as evidence to his unsustainable .446 BABIP. But I believe we have not even experienced Martinez’s power yet, and has a real chance to be a .300, 40 HR player. As the weather continues to get warmer, look for Martinez to be hitting the ball in the air much more, and prepare yourself for the show he will put on this summer.