Red Sox: What if Jeff Bagwell never got traded to Houston Astros?
The Boston Red Sox traded prospect Jeff Bagwell to Houston just a year after getting drafted. Is this the worst trade in franchise history?
Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Fame first baseman who played his entire career with the Houston Astros. Bags was born in Boston, Massachusetts, a New Englander at heart. He even opted to stay close to home attending the University of Hartford. In 1989, the Boston Red Sox drafted the then third baseman in the 4th round. It had all the makings of a great story about a hometown kid playing for his favorite ball club.
All that changed on August 30, 1990 when Bagwell was shipped to Houston for Larry Andersen, largely considered one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history. We’re left asking ourselves, was this the worst move ever by the Red Sox?
Andersen gained notoriety because of who he was traded for. Coming to Boston in 1990 via trade from Houston, the Red Sox needed a solid bullpen arm to bolster their squad. The Sox needed to prepare for what would become a match-up against the AL West Oakland Athletics. He did the job in Houston that year and continued upon his arrival to Boston. The Sox sent the then minor leaguer Bagwell to Houston. Who could have imagined what the future held?
The 1999 All Star Game must have been an odd feeling too. Listening to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver explain (beginning at 08:12) that Bagwell could have been doing it for Boston instead of against Boston just hurts. If there’s one trade do over the Red Sox wish they could have, Bagwell for Andersen would definitely be it.
Reason behind the trade
The Red Sox were adamant about solidifying their bullpen. Boston needed to get an extra arm come playoff time in order to have a shot at beating the A’s. The reason why Bagwell was viewed as “expendable” (it truly pains me to use that word) is because Mo Vaughn was set to become the first baseman for the Red Sox of the future. Vaughn was the 1st round selection of the ’89 draft and Bagwell was taken in the 4th round. Vaughn had also put up bigger numbers than Bagwell had in 1990 and at AAA in comparison to AA. To the Red Sox, the trade made sense.
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Vaughn had more value between the two with Bagwell still playing at the AA level. There was no question that Bags was the best hitter for the New Britain Red Sox in 1990. While he crushed AA ball, it didn’t automatically translate to dominating major league pitching. Just imagine, what if the Red Sox had never traded Bagwell away to Houston and had Mo Vaughn playing at the same time? Two MVP caliber first basemen? This could have been the original David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez one-two punch for the Sox in the 90’s.
Vaughn as the DH and Bagwell at first base? Defensively Bagwell was better. Bags could also play multiple positions as he had experience playing second and third base. It would theoretically allow both guys to get a day off and play DH. Was this a royal mistake? Both had great careers in the mid to late 90’s. Only one of the two continued playing at a high level past the year 2000.
We’ll take a painful trip down memory lane to look back at both Andersen and Bagwell’s numbers and then explain why the Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen trade was a mistake. We’ll find out if this was one of the worst moves in history or the worst trade in Red Sox history.
Sox trade for Larry Andersen to prepare for playoff run
Before joining the Red Sox in 1990, Andersen went 5-2 with a 1.92 ERA and struck out 68 batters in 73 2/3 innings. He also had allowed just two home runs the whole time. One metric people don’t know is that Andersen blew just one save in his 50 appearances while playing for the Astros. Almost perfect. Andersen was experiencing a fantastic year at age 37.
Upon his arrival to Boston however, he blew 3 of 4 save situations, hardly respectable. Andersen did manage to maintain a 1.23 ERA however while also striking out 25 batters over 22 innings. Hard to be upset with those numbers.
The Sox were hoping that Andersen could maintain those numbers in the playoffs. Perhaps even replicate his 1986 playoff numbers? One had to be optimistic. One would hope that his 1990 playoff performance and future with the Red Sox would be worth it.
Andersen in the playoffs was anything but lock down. He posted an 0-1 record in three innings of work, walked three, struck out three and allowed two runs on three hits with a whopping 6.00 ERA.
In Game 1 of the 1990 American League Championship Series, Andersen got blown out. He allowed two runs on two hits and added a walk in an inning of work.
Game 2 of ALCS Andersen did a little bit better, walking a batter and allowing a hit while recording a strikeout in an inning of work.
Game 3 Andersen didn’t see any work as Mike Boddicker went the whole way. Down 3-0 in the series, the Sox lost the final game where Andersen struck out two and walked one in an inning of work. That was the end of the Sox as they lost four straight and were eliminated from the playoffs.
That was also the end for Larry Andersen in Boston. After being granted free agency, Anderson joined the Padres for two seasons before joining the Phillies for two final seasons before retirement.
Bagwell vs Andersen by the numbers
Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career playing in Houston. He finished as the Astros all-time leader in several offensive categories, including home runs (449), runs batted in (1529), WAR (79.6), walks (1401) and sacrifice flies (102) to name a few.
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Andersen, as mentioned before, played in just 15 games for the Red Sox. In just one month of baseball, he had 25 K’s in 22 innings of work while sporting a 1.23 ERA.
Bagwell played a full season for the Astros for every game that Andersen pitched for the Sox. His best season came in the 1994 shortened year due to the MLB strike cutting the season short. In 110 games Bags had a .368/39/116/15 line adding 104 runs in just 479 plate appearances.
Bagwell also had the best OBP/SLG/OPS of his career with a .451/750/1.201 line. He has the 39th best OBP of all time (.408). Bagwell also posted the 11th best slugging percentage in a single season of all time (.750) and ranked 33rd all time with .540 career slugging. To add to his best campaign, he had a 1.200 OPS ranking as the 20th best single season place of all time and a career OPS of .948, good for 22nd all time.
The strike in 1994 hurt baseball and it hurt several players chances to have Herculean numbers. Several teams lost out on playing more than 45 games. Taking Bagwell’s average into consideration, had he played the full 162 games, Bagwell could have had a .368/57/170/22 line. This all assuming that he didn’t stray from his current averages. He would have added 216 hits and 153 runs scored making that one of the best theoretical lines in baseball history.
Personal Accolades
Bagwell:
- National League Rookie of the Year 1991
- National League Most Valuable Player 1994
- 4-time All-Star (1994, 1996, 1997 and 1999)
- Gold Glove Award 1994
- 3-time Silver Slugger (1994, 1997 and 1999)
- National League RBI Leader 1994
- Daryl Kile Good Guy Award 1994
- 6-time Astros Most Valuable Player
Andersen:
- Held no awards
Team & Major League Baseball Records
Bagwell went on to set many team and major league baseball records.
Bagwell as a player:
- Holds the MLB record for 6 straight seasons of 100 BB, 100 runs, 30 HR and 100 RBI
- 2-time 30-30 club member
- MLB Record – only 1st baseman with 400 HR’s and 200 SB
- Team Record – hit 13 home runs in one month 06/94
- MLB Record – doubles in one game – four
- MLB Record – walks in one game – six
- World Series appearance 2005
Andersen as a player:
- 2-time World Series appearance 1983 and 1993
- Held no team records or set MLB records
Seeing a trend? I think you get the picture here. No other player did as much for the Astros franchise as Bagwell did. Wouldn’t be hard to find a reliever who was able to accomplish what Andersen did.
Final Legacy in Major League Baseball
After his brief time in Boston, Andersen went on to play for the Padres for two seasons before finishing up his career with the Phillies in 1994.
Bagwell went on to become one of the best players in Astros franchise history. Over the last 12 seasons in which Bagwell played, the Astros finished in either first or second in the NL Central division. His number 5 was retired in 2007.
Finally, after six years of being on the ballot to get inducted into the Hall of Fame, Bagwell’s wait had ended. In 2017, his 7th year of being eligible, Bags got in, receiving 86.2% of the votes. The final step of any great ball players journey is making it to the Hall of Fame. If the numbers didn’t speak for themselves, the Hall definitely should. One’s in and one’s not.
Next: What if third baseman Adrian Beltre never left Boston?
At the end of the day, the Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell trade has to be considered one of the top two worst trades if not the worst in Red Sox history. It’s clearly one of the worst trades in baseball history. In the 55 year existence of the Astros, Bagwell must be considered one of the best to represent the franchise all time.