The Boston Red Sox find themselves in a tough position. In what was supposed to be a year where they became the cream of the contender crop, things have certainly not gone as planned. Many of the missteps have been self-inflicted, making the current state of the team sting that much more.
However, the American League is weak the frequently .500 Red Sox find themselves in and out of a Wild Card spot. With the impending returns of Alex Bregman and Masataka Yoshida from the injured list, it's not inconceivable for Boston to make a run in the second half, especially if they bring in some help via the trade market.
Therefore, the Red Sox enter trade season with eyes on threading the needle. The club will look to reshape its roster in a way that makes it both stronger in 2025 and better positioned for the future. This isn't an easy gambit to pull off, but if they manage to do it, fans will be singing a much different tune about the under-fire chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
How the Red Sox can operate as buyers at the 2025 trade deadline
The ultimate goal here would be for the Red Sox to add talent that vaults them back into the race in 2025, but also can make a positive impact on the team going forward. In a world where half-season rentals dominate the trade landscape, that might seem difficult.
However, with the windfall of Rafael Devers' money back in their pockets, the Red Sox can target players on expiring contracts with the hopes of re-signing them in the offseason.
The other thing working in Boston's favor is that, despite a trying first half, the big league roster doesn't have a ton of holes. The outfield is stacked, Bregman's return will fix third base, and the Abraham Toro-Romy Gonzalez platoon has more than held its own in Triston Casas' absence.
What sticks out as priorities are starting pitchers and a second baseman. Garrett Crochet has been every bit as good as advertised, but his supporting cast has left a lot to be desired. Through July 2, Red Sox starters rank 22nd in the majors with a 4.31 ERA. A boost here would go a long way towards making a playoff push down the stretch.
The starting pitching market has some question marks. It's been long assumed that 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, 29, would be the deadline prize, but in his return from Tommy John surgery, he's struggled mightily to the tune of a 6.98 ERA.
Zac Gallen, 29, is another arm with frontline stuff who has struggled to pitch to his reputation. A free agent at the end of the year, Gallen's performance started off poorly and has actually gotten worse as the season has gone on, making him a gamble. If the Red Sox believe in his stuff, they could try to pry him away from the Arizona Diamondbacks and then take advantage of his rough season to sign the free-agent-to-be to a team-friendly extension.
An under-the-radar candidate for the rotation might be Miami's Edward Cabrera. The oft-injured righty has an expansive repertoire and some strikeout upside, but walks too many batters. With two more years of arbitration, Miami could look to move on before his salary begins to balloon, giving the Red Sox the opportunity to land a cost-controlled 27-year-old hurler. He wouldn't come without risk, as he's never thrown more than 99.2 innings in a single season, but the upside might make him a gamble worth taking.
On the second base front, the Red Sox only need a stop-gap type of player. Despite his big league struggles, Kristian Campbell is still the future. In the interim, switch-hitting Willi Castro of the Minnesota Twins would be the dream, while Pittsburgh's Isiah Kiner-Falefa or the Athletics' Luis Urias could provide cheaper options who fit better as utility infielders than starting second basemen.
With a deep and talented farm system, Boston can find a way to acquire pretty much any player they desire at the deadline. However, the top youngsters who have or will soon have big league roles, such as Campbell, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Jhostynxon Garcia, are likely off limits. Outside of them, everyone else is fair game for an impactful return.
How the Red Sox can operate as sellers at the 2025 trade deadline
While many third base needy contenders are circling like vultures, hoping the wheels completely fall off the Red Sox season so that they can poach Alex Bregman, a trade there doesn't seem likely. Sure, Bregman will likely opt out of his deal in the offseason, but will the Red Sox really let him walk after shipping Devers to the West Coast? It seems unlikely, since Bregman's return is what gives the Sox hope that they can turn their season around.
Instead, the players who will be shopped are those who are on expiring deals and/or have internal replacements champing at the bit. Two players in particular stand out as chips likely to be on the move.
First is closer Aroldis Chapman. The reliever market always heats up considerably at the deadline, and the Red Sox would be well served to capitalize on the 37-year-old's dominant season, which features a 1.32 ERA and 38.8% K-rate.
A free agent at the end of the year, Chapman is getting long in the tooth despite his stellar performance to date. A contender desperate for bullpen help could give the Red Sox a prospect haul that would be too good to pass up, given that the chances of Chapman returning to Boston in 2026 are slim.
This would open a vacancy at the closer role, which could put the Sox back into buying mode, with Pittsburgh's David Bednar as a potential target. Bednar, 30, has rebounded nicely from an early-season demotion to Triple-A, now owning a 2.73 ERA through 29.2 innings. With another year of team control beyond this season, Bednar would give Boston a cheap closer for the next year and a half, while still costing less than the haul they'd receive from moving Chapman.
The second most likely veteran to be on the move is left fielder Jarren Duran. Boston is in a weird place with Duran, who doesn't hit free agency until after the 2028 season and has regressed with the bat in 2025 following two superb years in 2023 and 2024.
Despite just average performance from the 28-year-old offensively, his market should be red hot. Many teams could use an outfield bat, and an athletic, cost-controlled, left-handed hitter like Duran checks many, many boxes for contenders.
Therefore, the list of Duran suitors will be a mile long, and with a need to clear the way for top prospect Roman Anthony, it seems inevitable that the veteran left fielder will be on the move.
In a way, this is the best possible outcome for Boston. Duran is toolsy, but aside from 2024, when he played 160 games, he's never really put it all together for one reason or another. Capitalizing on his value now, even if his numbers are down from the heights of 2024, might mean dodging a bullet if last year's performance proves to be the outlier in Duran's career moving forward.
A Duran trade would further give Boston ammunition to go out and attack weaknesses on the big league roster, while also adding to the Sox's future stockpile.
At the end of the day, the simultaneous buy-and-sell strategy is inherently linked. Some new holes, such as closer, will open, yet moving on from players who have in-house replacements will provide additional currency to buy upgrades in areas where the club has no significant answers knocking on the door to the big leagues.