Heading into the 2026 season, the predictive models were very bearish on the Boston Red Sox offense. Everyone knew that power was a department the Sox were lacking after the offseason, but the models were being ultra-conservative. The ZiPS projections had the Red Sox as the only team not to have a single 20+ home run hitter.
It didn't even take until the All-Star break for that to be proven wrong. Willson Contreras hit the 20 home run milestone in Anaheim in the series finale against the Angels. It took the Red Sox first baseman 86 games to tie his season total from 2025, and he is now just four shy of the career high mark he set in 2019.
Contreras has been a revelation for the Red Sox, and for most of the season, the buoy keeping their offense afloat. The 34-year-old is in the 99th percentile in batting run value, and he leads Boston in every major offensive category.
Willson Contreras' Red Sox breakout has proved preseason prediction models wrong
It was a shock to most baseball fans to see the Red Sox projected not to have a 20+ home run hitter. Even though they were going into the 2026 season without Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman, Contreras felt like a perfect fit in Fenway. In 2025, Contreras pulled the ball in the air at the highest rate of his career and one of the highest rates in all of baseball. That trait is ideal for a right-handed slugger in Boston, as it allows them to utilize the extremely short right field.
Willson Contreras spoke postgame about hitting his 20th home run and the momentum that the #RedSox are taking into their next series ⬇️
— NESN (@NESN) July 6, 2026
🎙️ Presented by @WBMasonCo pic.twitter.com/nC82NMtIsr
Contreras has upped his pull air% even more in 2026, doing so over 25% of the time. That, plus his 96th percentile bat speed and 86th percentile barrel%, has resulted in the former Cardinal being in the midst of a career season. The former catcher was finally rewarded for his efforts with an All-Star selection, after being snubbed on the original list (subscription required).
Contreras is on pace to hit 37 home runs and have 111 RBI this season. If that holds, he would be just the 10th player to have a 30-home-run, 100-RBI season for the Sox since 2000. He is also the sixth Red Sox player to have 20+ home runs and 60+ RBIs in the first half since 2000
Contreras' production has been critical for Boston. He has been everything the Red Sox have needed and then some, not just on the field but in the clubhouse, too. Even though Red Sox Nation was more bullish on the veteran than the projection models, no one thought he was going to be this good.
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