Craig Breslow stunned Boston Red Sox fans when he traded for Sonny Gray. The move has had mixed reviews from Red Sox Nation, with some seeing the declining numbers of the 36-year-old as concerning, while more analytical fans see the underlying metrics as positive.
Fans are hoping that this isn't the final addition to the rotation this winter for the Red Sox, but Breslow’s usual GM speak didn't give much hope. One thing can be deduced from this trade, though: this move was just as much about 2027 as it is 2026.
The talk of the offseason has been the Sox’s need for a No. 2 starter. No one was sure whether it would be via trade or free agency. Fans had hoped for someone who was going to be in Boston for multiple seasons, something Gray isn’t, but that might be why Breslow made this move.
It won't be known until a trade is made just how much teams are asking for controllable starters this winter. The Sox didn't have to trade the farm to acquire Gray. Breslow may not have been willing to meet the potentially exorbitant prices the other teams are asking for. Though the Red Sox still have the means to make a trade for such a pitcher.
Sonny Gray is a more surefire thing than any available free agent, and sets the Red Sox up for the future
Additionally, the free agent market this winter presents numerous question marks and appears to be marked by seemingly high mega-contracts. Dylan Cease just signed with the Blue Jays for $210 million for seven years. While he has two top-five Cy Young finishes in the last four years, he also has two seasons with ERAs over four and a half. No other free agent starter this offseason is a sure-fire thing either. Framber Valdez has character concerns, Michael King dealt with a lot of injuries last season, and Ranger Suarez has never pitched over 160 innings in a season. At least with Gray, it's almost a guaranteed 180 innings with an ERA in the threes.
Maybe the biggest part of acquiring the veteran righty is the fact that he is only on a one-year contract. That must have been a factor when looking forward to the 2027 free agent class. Tarik Skubal, Freddy Peralta, and Shane Bieber are among the names of starters whose contracts expire at the end of the 2026 season — all three of them are better and more consistent options. Those names, with the fact that no one is quite sure what the future holds with the 2027 collective bargaining agreement, make the trade seem like it's setting the team up for moves next offseason.
While Gray may not have been the name fans had hoped for, he's a serviceable No. 2 for one year, especially with the Cardinals paying almost half his contract. It's hard to sell a fanbase on looking a year into the future when the mindset should be win now, but looking ahead makes this trade make a lot more sense. If this is the only starting pitcher brought in the offseason, just remember that next offseason that spot is open again, and there are better names on the horizon.