When the Boston Red Sox picked up Sonny Gray for Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts — all while convincing the St. Louis Cardinals to eat roughly half of his remaining salary — it seemed as though Craig Breslow had successfully scooped up an affordable short-term co-ace for Garrett Crochet.
Gray may be removed from his 2023 peak when he led the league in FIP (2.83) and finished second in AL Cy Young voting with the Minnesota Twins, but he still led the Senior Circuit in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.29) and handled more than 180 innings for the second time in three years. If he's not a No. 2 anymore, he's at least an ideal mid-rotation arm for a contending franchise.
However, the strong value the Red Sox got for Gray has been thrown into flux thanks to the Houston Astros, who signed Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai to a wildly favorable contract.
Some reporters projected Imai to receive upwards of $150 million in free agency thanks to the combination of his youth (27 years old) and recent performance (1.92 ERA 27.8% strikeout rate in 2025).
Tatsuya Imai's deal with Houston is for 3 years with opt outs every year, sources tell ESPN. When terms are announced, it'll be the largest AAV for a Japanese pitcher coming over outside of Yamamoto and Masahiro Tanaka in 2014.
— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) January 1, 2026
Tatsuya Imai's contract with Astros calls into question Red Sox's deal with Sonny Gray
Instead, the Astros convinced him to accept a three-year, $54 million deal with opt-outs after every season, meaning the Japanese ace will earn roughly $3 million less in 2026 than Gray will. Considering the only "extraneous" payment Houston has to make is Imai's posting fee, it's hard to feel like the Red Sox got good value for Gray when they're paying him more and had to surrender a top pitching prospect for his services.
Now, in fairness to Breslow and the front office, there was no way to know that Imai would have to settle for such a below-market deal. In fact, given the prices on other pitchers this offseason (in both trades and free agency), it appeared as though the Red Sox got favorable value for Gray for some time.
Plus, for all of Imai's recent success in Japan, there's no guarantee he can translate it to the MLB. Gray is a more proven commodity at this level, even if his age (36) and contract limits the upside he can bring to Boston.
At the end of the day, the Red Sox paid a similar amount of money and gave up a top prospect for a lower-ceiling but higher-floor pitcher. The wisdom behind that is questionable, but at least the team got someone to help front the rotation, unlike a certain AL East rival.