Orioles, Astros overpaying in trades highlights Craig Breslow’s Red Sox success

Admittedly, things feel like they've been going slowly for the Boston Red Sox this offseason, which is probably because the team is one of just two MLB franchises to have yet to sign a major-league free agent.

That being said, the Red Sox have been very active on the trade market, acquiring Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo in separate deals while dumping Vaughn Grissom on the Angels, adding Ryan Watson in a post-Rule 5 Draft trade with the Athletics, and swapping Luis Perales for a top Nationals prospect.

That's a lot of movement, even if everyone continues to wait for news on the Alex Bregman front.

Those trades for Gray and Oviedo already looked good at first glance — the team needed starting pitching reinforcements in the worst way — but after a pair of high-profile pitching trades by other American League contenders, it's become very obvious why Craig Breslow jumped the gun when trading for his preferred starters.

Red Sox clearly got good value on Sonny Gray, Johan Ovideo trades

Losing Brandon Clarke (Gray trade) and Jhostynxon Garcia (Oviedo trade) isn't easy, but the Red Sox have the farm system depth to survive losing a pair of top prospects. Plus, even in acquiring two-fifths of their starting rotation for 2026, Boston didn't have to surrender any of their star outfielders or major-league-ready pitching prospects. Contrast that with what the Houston Astros just gave up for Mike Burrows, and you'll be begin to see what Breslow has been cooking since the offseason began.

In essence, the Astros gave up their second and seventh-best prospects for Burrows, a right-hander with a career 4.15 FIP (and 4.42 xERA). He's got more long-term team control than either Oviedo or Gray, but he's also a very average pitcher. It's hard to see this as anything other than a big overpay by Houston.

Trust me, though, you haven't seen anything yet. The Orioles — who are doing everything in their power to have the most confusing offseason of all time — just traded four top-30 prospects and a first-round pick (Competitive Balance Round A) for Shane Baz.

Now, Baz is a pitcher with a lot of potential, but he's also had huge injury issues and just recorded a 4.87 ERA in 166 1/3 innings in 2025. Considering Baltimore just swapped Grayson Rodriguez for one year of Taylor Ward, this is a haul to say the least.

There's reason to be concerned about the Red Sox, especially if Bregman really does leave in free agency. But as we watch some of the biggest AL competitors trip over themselves to trade away top prospects for middling starters, let's remember that Breslow and the front office have already secured their pitching staff for some more-than-reasonable prices.