At 46-45, the Red Sox are riding a three-game winning streak (and wins in five of their last six contests) back to Wild Card contention. Yes, the team perennially flirts with a .500 record, but it's clear that the clubhouse isn't just going to roll over in the aftermath of the Rafael Devers trade.
Assuming Boston decides to "go for it" at the trade deadline and makes some buy-side moves to reinforce the roster, the most obvious need for help exists in the starting rotation, as Walker Buehler toils away with a 6.25 ERA that's not exactly a befitting accompaniment to his $21.05 million salary.
However, a replacement for Buehler may not be the only item on Craig Breslow's shopping list. If rookie starter Richard Fitts doesn't improve dramatically over the course of the next few weeks, Boston may need to bring in multiple starters by July 31.
On the surface, Fitts' performance doesn't look too bad. A 4.50 ERA in seven starts isn't anything to scoff at, and his 18.2% strikeout rate and 1.25 WHIP are hardly harbingers of doom.
Red Sox need to replace Richard Fitts at trade deadline if they hope to compete
However, dive a little beneath the surface, and you'll begin to crow quite concerned with the right-hander. He's averaging just four innings a start, and he hasn't gone more than four innings in any appearance since April 12.
His expected stats and batted-ball metrics are also foreboding. He sits in the fifth percentile among all MLB pitchers in barrel rate allowed (12.6%) and expected ERA (5.69). His fastball and slider — his two primary pitches — are also being smacked around to the tune of a .375 and .380 wOBA, respectively.
Simply put, Fitts' mediocre results are likely to regress backward rather than forward. For a team with increasingly-realistic postseason aspirations, that isn't going to cut it.
Now, the team could wait things out for some in-house reinforcements. Tanner Houck, who struggled badly before landing on the injured list in mid-May with a forearm issue, is close to making his return. Likewise, Hunter Dobbins looked excellent in his first rehab outing over the weekend and has earned a spot in the rotation with his performance this year.
That's the path of a team content to remain on the fringes of contention, though. If the Red Sox continue their winning ways prior to the deadline, the clubhouse will have earned the right to invite some fresh faces to the pitching staff. Waiting for injured players to return — and hoping they improve upon their pre-injury performance — is the strategy of a franchise that has no intention of escaping the mediocrity treadmill it's been trapped on for the past few seasons.
If Fitts doesn't step up his performance over his next few outings — he's scheduled to face the Rockies and Rays at home prior to the All-Star break — the front office seriously needs to consider acquiring multiple starters at the trade deadline.