Before any pitches were thrown this season, the Boston Red Sox faithful had high expectations. Not many would’ve guessed the Red Sox would be a .500 team yet again after the huge acquisitions of Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman.
The Red Sox have a clear problem holding them back from postseason contention. Boston's starters not named Crochet have struggled to minimize damage and go deep into games. In the first inning alone, they have a 6.64 ERA, second-worst in the league behind the dreadful Rockies staff. The rotation, built by Craig Breslow and overseen by pitching coach Andrew Bailey, is making playoff contention nearly impossible.
Though it may be forgotten now, Boston’s pitching lab under Bailey dominated the early months of the 2024 season. The Red Sox led the majors with a 2.59 ERA, and the starting rotation spearheaded that effort with a 2.10 ERA. Bailey championed a league-wide trend of reducing fastball usage in favor of off-speed and breaking balls. In 2014, 57% of MLB pitches were fastballs and by 2024, that number had dropped to 47%. While many teams leaned on velocity and spin, Bailey and the Sox aimed to outsmart hitters with their updated arsenal.
Now, Bailey appears to have been figured out. Only 32% of pitches thrown by Red Sox pitchers are fastballs. Opposing teams are teeing off on the slower offerings, seemingly aware of Boston’s off-speed-heavy approach.
The Red Sox need to fix their rotation to contend for the postseason, and they're running out of time
In addition to Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts being called up from Worcester, the Red Sox brought in Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Patrick Sandoval to round out the rotation. Sandoval has yet to pitch, while Buehler and Giolito are getting shelled every other outing, often struggling to escape the first inning.
Meanwhile, the returning starters have regressed significantly in a season where the Red Sox were counting on them. Tanner Houck has an 8.04 ERA and looks unplayable, and Brayan Bello has yet to take the leap the team hoped for. With former Boston arms Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Nathan Eovaldi all thriving elsewhere, there’s a clear problem in Boston that must be diagnosed and fixed.
Whether you believe Bailey should be fired or not, they need to rework their methodology completely. Stick with a more traditional pitching approach, rethink their pitching philosophy and then mix in Bailey’s plans when necessary.
Throwing a noticeable lack of fastballs is designed to be unpredictable to major league hitters. The inverse effect happens when your unpredictable game plan becomes predictable by default.