Nine Boston Red Sox players will enter arbitration this offseason, one of them being outfielder Jarren Duran.
Duran will enter his second year of arbitration in just a few months, and his first wasn't easy for Boston's front office. Duran and his representation filed at $4 million, while the Red Sox filed at $3.5 million. The two sides could not settle by the deadline, which could have sent them to a hearing if they hadn't agreed to a contract price before the hearing date.
Weeks before the arbitration hearings were scheduled to take place, Boston and Duran settled on a one-year, $3.75 million contract with escalators up to $12 million based on where he finished in the American League MVP race. Their agreement also includes an $8 million club option for the 2026 season.
Duran regressed from the 2024 season when he earned his first All-Star nomination and placed eighth in the AL MVP race. In 2025, he slashed .256/.332/.442 with a .774 OPS, 41 doubles, 13 triples and 16 homers in 157 games. His defense experienced the most regression — his range decreased from the 95th percentile in 2024 with 10 outs above average to the 19th percentile and -3 outs above average this season.
Jarren Duran's contract option and expected arbitration salary could foreshadow a Red Sox trade
Duran's playoff performance was also incredibly rough. He logged just one hit and four strikeouts over the three-game Wild Card series in the Bronx, he made a critical misplay that arguably cost the Red Sox Game 2, and his lack of hustle on a ball over his head awarded Giancarlo Stanton — a player with first percentile sprint speed — a free double in Game 3.
It could be hard for Duran and his representation to argue that his 2025 season was worth the over $4 million pay raise that his club option would afford him next season, but MLB Trade Rumors predicts he'll file at $8.4 million.
However, if the Red Sox accept Duran's club option, rather than taking him to an arbitration hearing (if necessary), it could be easier for them to trade him. Duran's trade value has only decreased over the last year, but his elite sprint speed and years of experience could still keep him a coveted trade candidate among teams in need of outfield help.
The Padres have been connected to the Red Sox in pursuit of a Duran trade multiple times, and their early postseason exit after their massive swing at the trade deadline could call for more big changes this offseason. The Red Sox also have a logjam in the outfield, and trading Duran would be possibly the easiest path to clearing that up.
Duran has three years of team control remaining, and Boston has already missed the moment to trade him for the best possible return. His arbitration salary will likely be more than the Red Sox are comfortable paying, especially if Alex Bregman and Trevor Story opt in to their contracts, so this could be the winter Duran is moved.