2 contract situations Red Sox fans should know about before the arbitration deadline

It's shaping up to be a busy offseason for the Boston Red Sox. Anybody who followed the team this season will be very aware of the impending opt-outs of Alex Bregman and Trevor Story, as well as Lucas Giolito's option that vested to a mutual option. The Sox also have an outfield logjam that they will almost surely clear up in a big-time trade.

Following the disappointment of the wildcard round exit by Boston, there will need to be changes made to the roster. That doesn't just include the stars; the entire 40-man roster faces scrutiny. While some positions around the diamond, like catcher and center field, are likely set already, other positions will surely see some shake-up. Two players on the roster are at interesting inflection points in their contracts that haven't been brought to the forefront.

2 contract situations Red Sox fans should know about before the arbitration deadline

Jarren Duran

Duran was a breakout star in 2023. He was arbitration eligible for the first time last offseason, and it seemed like the Sox were going to squabble with him over $500,000, after he filed at $4 million and the team at $3.5 million. While they eventually agreed to a contract that met in the middle, he was the last arbitration player to sign a deal with Boston. That deal also included an $8 million team option for 2026.

Following a year where his bWAR dropped from 8.7 to 4.6, it feels safe to assume that the team may not pick up that option. Boston's front office was being stingy with their homegrown breakout star last season. They may look at that option and feel like he didn't live up to the $4.25 million pay raise on the contract he signed.

The second offseason in arbitration is also where players tend to see the highest pay bump in their three or four arbitration-eligible years, so they could also see that pay boost as fair and pick it up. Also, having him signed to a contract may make it easier to trade him if they choose to. It'll be an interesting watch among a flurry of deals that are sure to come.

Tanner Houck

Tanner Houck is also about to reach his second year of arbitration. The first half of his 2024 season was ace-level and earned him an All-Star bid. The second half was a downturn from the first, but still not terrible. Red Sox Nation had hoped for a return to form from the righty in 2025, but elbow issues plagued his season and eventually led to him needing Tommy John surgery, which will cost him all of 2026.

Houck's spot on the roster is in a precarious position. In the offseason, the injured list is not a thing, so any player on the 60-day IL, like Houck, who doesn't count against the 40-man roster in season, does again in the offseason. Boston currently has 10 players on the 60-day IL, meaning at the start of the offseason, their 40-man roster will balloon to 50 players. Every team has a few weeks into the offseason to clear that up, so it isn't pertinent right away, but it will become an issue before the end of November.

As previously stated, Arb 2 is where players receive the biggest pay raise of any arbitration year, so Houck is due for some pay bump this offseason, despite missing all of next year. Also, Breslow and Co. will have to weigh the benefits of Houck taking up a 40-man spot all offseason, knowing he won't impact the 2026 team, and will be a free agent after 2027. That will be weighed against potential free agent adds and players that will need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. Boston's roster is already very full. Any trades and other non-tendered 40-man players will help clear it, but Houck's roster spot is by no means safe heading into the offseason.