After a first half in which they were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, the Boston Red Sox have rattled off 14 wins in their last 16 games. Out of nowhere, they've sprung into the trade deadline picture as potential buyers and not clear sellers.
Boston had been in trade deadline limbo for some time — and not just because of the delusions of the front office. Its pitching had been excellent and its offense showed just enough promise to keep fans just-barely hopeful. Now, the Sox are just three games out of a Wild Card spot and they have a better run differential than any of the three teams in front of them in the race (Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays).
Yet, MLB insider Jeff Passan has marked the Red Sox as a major seller in his July 9 trade deadline rumor roundup. He listed multiple Sox players as the "best match" or "dream match" for a few contending teams: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray are the dream matches for the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs, respectively, while Aroldis Chapman is the best match for the Miami Marlins and Garrett Whitlock for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
To Passan's credit, the Red Sox looked lost at the plate for the first months of the season. Their long-term last-place status in the contentious American League East and list of talented pitching trade candidates made them one of the most obvious sellers in the market just a few weeks ago.
Jeff Passan sees Red Sox as massive trade deadline sellers with Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, Willson Contreras and Garrett Whitlock on the move
Three of the Red Sox's recent wins have also come against the Los Angeles Angels, arguably the worst squad in the AL. While Sox fans are clinging to any momentum the team finds, outside sources may see their players on short deals as too good for Boston to hold past the deadline.
The Red Sox's earlier struggles were caused by underperformance of the offense. For months, Contreras, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafeala were the only consistent hitters in the lineup while Jarren Duran, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Caleb Durbin struggled. Now that Story, Mayer and Anthony are on the IL, Boston was forced to explore other offensive options who are hitting better than they were, like Anthony Seigler and Romy Gonzalez. Caleb Durbin has also broken out in a massive way (though he's come back to earth a bit in July), making the Sox's lineup longer.
Since the Red Sox's offense has fluctuated so much this season, it could make sense to trade Gray and Chapman, who are both impending free agents. But trading Contreras and Whitlock makes far less sense, especially if Boston hopes to compete in 2027 (or whenever the next season is). Contreras and Whitlock are both under team control until after the 2028 season and both are part of the solution in Boston — Contreras is on pace to smash his previous career high in home runs and Whitlock is closer material in the event of a Chapman trade.
The Red Sox will need to play out the next few weeks before they decide their trade deadline path. A few more wins could mean they're well-established in the Wild Card conversation while a few losses would kick them back down to the bottom of the AL. Boston has many injuries to fight through to stay close to a Wild Card spot, but if the offense can stay as gutsy as it has been in the last few series, coupled with the top-tier pitching it's been getting, buying at the trade deadline is possible.
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