The August 3 trade deadline is inching closer, yet the Boston Red Sox's deadline plans aren't any clearer. Despite sitting at the bottom of the American League East, the Red Sox just went on their best stretch of the year, winning eight of their last 10 games.
Even if the Red Sox continue their hot streak, they could justify moving Sonny Gray at the trade deadline. They've been in last place for most of the season, Gray is on a one-year deal and he's done nothing but raise his trade value since he came off the injured list in early May. He's posted a 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 82 strikeouts and 23 walks over 89.2 innings this season.
Yet, ESPN's MLB insider Jeff Passan believes there's only a 25 percent chance that the Red Sox trade Gray ahead of the deadline. He thinks the Sox have a better shot at trading Willson Contreras, who he places at a 40 percent chance to be traded before August 3.
Passan cited Gray's salary as a reason he may not be traded, especially the $10 million buyout on the $30 million mutual option on his contract for next season. Mutual options are so rarely picked up that the $10 million is essentially a guaranteed expense for any team that takes him on.
Jaff Passan predicts shockingly low chance of Red Sox trading Sonny Gray
But there are plenty of teams in the mix, and ones specifically linked to Gray, who have the money and motivation to take on this risk. The Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs are three of the better examples — the Braves and Cubs aren't short on funds and the Padres are desperate to unseat the Los Angeles Dodgers as kings of the National League West.
The Red Sox also have plenty of motivation to move on from Gray, if he waives his no-trade clause, which he's already said he's willing to do for the right team (subscription required). Gray is 36 years old and on a one-year contract while Boston has plenty of young pitching depth, as well as more arms coming up through its system. It doesn't need to pay Gray in the second half, let alone into next year.
The injuries to Connelly Early and Ranger Suarez could change things, though. Early is getting a second opinion on his diagnosis of elbow inflammation while Suarez is likely to need an IL stint with an adductor issue — Gray is one of the Sox's last remaining starter options with Garrett Crochet and Johan Oviedo still injured while Jake Bennett is already dominating in the major leagues.
As opposed to trading Gray, trading Contreras makes no sense for the Red Sox. They've long been desperate for right-handed pop and he's having a career year at the plate with 20 homers over 86 games so far. He's on pace to smash his previous career-high in home runs (24). Boston has also needed a competent first baseman for quite some time and Contreras has been exactly the right solution. He's under team control for two more years after the 2026 season and the Red Sox should hold onto him for their future.
Despite Passan's estimates, Red Sox fans will continue to believe Gray is a top target on this year's trade market. He's been too lights-out to ignore and at least a few contending teams will be willing to pay the necessary price to add him to their rotation.
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