After the Chicago Cubs stole Alex Bregman away from the Boston Red Sox, they could provide the key to how the Red Sox can pivot and move forward after the de facto captain moved on. The Bregman signing has created a glut of infielders in Chicago, and Boston could capitalize and swing a deal in order to fill its infield vacancy.
Even before the Bregman move, there have been rumblings that perhaps Chicago would be willing to trade second baseman Nico Hoerner. Those calls are only growing louder now. However, as currently constructed, Hoerner isn't the one displaced by Bregman; it looks like former top prospect Matt Shaw will be the odd man out after an uneven rookie season.
The 24-year-old played the hot corner last season, though he's thought to be better at second than he is at third. If Hoerner moves on - which would make sense, given he's in the last year of his deal - then Shaw slides to second, and the Cubs have their infield locked down both for the present and future.
However, the Red Sox have instead been focused on young, controllable talent, and while much of that talent already belongs to them, the chance to add a high-ceiling youngster like Shaw to grow alongside Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and others could be too tempting to pass up.
It would be a mistake, though.
The Cubs could provide the key to the Red Sox's infield woes, but only if Boston targets Nico Hoerner over Matt Shaw
Hoerner won't come cheap, but his price tag pales in comparison to what it would take to pry Shaw away, given the difference in team control. While Chicago spent big on Bregman, that hasn't really been their M.O. recently, and there's a pretty decent shot they let Hoerner walk next offseason if he isn't traded first.
So while either negotiation would start with a young, big-league-ready arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early, it will be much more costly to snag Shaw.
With that, Boston needs to think about where they truly stand in the AL East. After spending on Ranger Suárez, trading for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras, and lavishing Garrett Crochet with an extension last year, the club is set up to contend.
Unfortunately, they also play in the most competitive division in baseball. The Toronto Blue Jays have made no bones about wanting to return to (and win) the World Series, given their flurry of aggressive moves and the potential for more. The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the most active teams this winter as they look to move out of the cellar and back to the upper echelon of contenders. The New York Yankees haven't done much... yet. And the Tampa Bay Rays are always pesky.
With that, consistency and experience matter for Boston, and that's what Hoerner provides. The 28-year-old might not have much power, but he's stolen 20-plus bases each of the last four seasons, including a high of 43 in 2023. Last season, he slashed .297/.345/.394 while posting a microscopic 7.6% strikeout rate. He's a two-time Gold Glove winner at second, and can handle shortstop as well. In total, he's been a 4-plus fWAR player four years running, thanks to his combination of enticing skills.
Shaw, on the other hand, slashed .226/.295/.394, and struggled so badly to open the year that he was demoted to Triple-A for roughly a month to figure things out. Even if he was better once he returned, he still posted a .556 OPS in the first half. His second half was better, with an .839 mark, but he dipped again over the season's final month, slashing .222/.313/.375 in September.
The Red Sox are going to pay a high price either way, but if they are willing to part with the necessary assets, Hoerner is clearly the way to go. He'll give them the certainty they need in order to compete, and they can always try to extend him to keep him in the fold long term. Chasing Shaw is a risk that they simply can't afford to take.