The Boston Red Sox haven't gotten off to the start they'd hoped for many reasons. It's not a shock to most that the offense has looked underpowered; however, the projections at some points had Boston's starting rotation as the best in the MLB, and nothing has been further from the truth so far. While there's reason to believe that established stalwarts like Garrett Crochet and Ranger Suarez will turn it around, the sun might have set on Brayan Bello's time as a useful starter.
The 27-year-old got off to a strange start when umpire Mark Wegner lost track of the count and issued a walk to Cam Smith after Bello struck him out. Strange quirk aside, Bello still didn't execute his pitches and gave up six runs (five earned) over 4â…” innings.
That was still one of his better outings, further highlighting the concern. Through his first five starts, Bello has surpassed 4â…” innings just once, coming on April 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The intrigue built when the Sox decided to bump Bello from the series finale against the New York Yankees on April 23, which led to speculation that Payton Tolle would get the call to start the game instead. That's exactly what happened, and Tolle's 11 strikeouts over six innings may bring Bello to a crossroads where he's forced out of the rotation when Sonny Gray returns from the IL.
Red Sox starter Brayan Bello's breakout might've been fool's gold
When the Red Sox extended Bello ahead of the 2024 season, there was a hope that he'd continue progressing towards becoming the top-of-the-rotation they'd envisioned. It wasn't until last year, his fourth year in the majors, that he'd crossed the 4.00-ERA threshold in a good way, posting a 3.35 mark.
Under the hood, things weren't as rosy. Outside of his 50% ground ball rate, there was nothing truly above average from Bello's performance. He rarely got hitters to chase outside the zone, with a chase rate that ranked in the 37th percentile. He got whiffs even less frequently, posting a 12th percentile mark. His 8.4% walk rate was slightly below average.
Everything considered, his xERA was significantly worse than his actual, coming in at a 4.48 mark that was more in line with his actual career ERA of 4.42 coming into 2025. His xFIP came in at 4.39, while he also recorded a 4.55 SIERA, both of which were the worst marks of his career. SIERA and xFIP are two of the best indicators of future performance for pitchers we have, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Bello is struggling now.
When isolating what was in Bello's control, it's clear that what appeared to be the best season of his career might actually have been his worst, or at the very least, was in line with the back-end type performance he had given Boston throughout his career.
This all suggests that the once-promising right-hander won't continue to pitch to a 9.00 ERA as he did after getting routed by the Baltimore Orioles in his latest start. But that brings about another concern: how long can he hang on until he's irreparably broken?
Bello needs a reset, and Sonny Gray's return could provide that. At the same time, Tolle represents potential, while it's become clear that Bello is what he is. At his best, he's a back-of-the-rotation ground ball artist; at his worst, well, we're seeing that now. It's time to turn the page and see what a better option for the future may hold.
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