The Boston Red Sox held the top American League Wild Card spot to start the final week of August. With four series left in their season, they hold a slim 0.5-game lead in second place, behind their arch rival New York Yankees.
The Sox surely hoped to claim home field advantage for a potential Wild Card bout with the Yankees, but their focus has shifted to staying in the race in the first place. Injuries to key bats like Wilyer Abreu and Roman Anthony have taken some air out of the offense, and Boston's pitching depth has thinned with Dustin May and Richard Fitts joining Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Patrick Sandoval on the injured list.
Unfortunately, the Red Sox don't entirely control their own destiny as the postseason rapidly approaches. The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers aren't leaving the race quietly.
Boston's magic number to clinch a Wild Card spot over both the Guardians and Rangers is nine. The magic number represents the total number of wins needed by the Red Sox and the total number of losses by a given opponent that would clinch a playoff spot for Boston. In other words, when the total number of Red Sox wins plus the number of Guardians or Rangers losses (depending which challenger is in second place) equals nine, the second place team cannot mathematically pass Boston in the postseason race.
Red Sox's magic number to clinch a Wild Card spot is nine with 12 games to go, including some against division-leading opponents
The Guardians are a game ahead of the Rangers in the standings but the Red Sox have the tie advantage of a tie beaker over Cleveland thanks to their 4-2 win in the regular season series. Boston doesn't have the tie breaker over Texas, which won the season series, 4-3.
The rest of the Red Sox's journey to the Wild Card will be difficult. According to The Athletic, Boston has the hardest remaining schedule of any of the AL contenders, with the A's, Rays, Blue Jays and Tigers as its last four series of the season. The Yankees have it easy in comparison, with two series against the Orioles and matchups with the Twins and White Sox to finish out their year — the White Sox are the worst team in the AL and the Twins are the second-worst.
The Guardians and Rangers have their share of trials ahead, but Cleveland's schedule is much harder. The Guardians will face the Tigers twice and the Twins once before meeting Texas in the final series of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Rangers will play the Astros, Marlins and Twins.
The Red Sox are still very much in the race for the postseason, but they'll need to hold their own against some difficult opponents, including their division's leader, to stay afloat. It doesn't help that their destiny isn't entirely in their control, but the Sox have more than enough talent to stick it out for another 12 games.