After taking two of three from the Cleveland Guardians, the Boston Red Sox opened their weekend series against the Arizona Diamondbacks with an embarrassing 10-5 loss.
Still, the Red Sox remain in the thick of the American League playoff race. If the season were to end today, they would finish third in the AL Central behind the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees and secure the second AL Wild Card spot.
The Red Sox's magic number to officially clinch a spot in the postseason is 16. This magic number represents the total number of wins by the Red Sox and the total number of losses by the closest competing team, needed to make it mathematically impossible for that team to overtake Boston for a postseason berth.
That team is currently the Seattle Mariners, who sit at 73-68. Right behind them, however, are the Texas Rangers (73-69), who are essentially tied with Seattle in terms of impact on Boston's playoff chances. While Seattle fell to the Atlanta Braves, Texas secured a win over the Houston Astros on Friday to offset the Red Sox's loss and keep the magic number at 16.
Red Sox's playoff magic number stalls at 16 as crowded AL Wild Card picture, injuries make things harder
Once the combined total of Red Sox wins and challenger losses reaches the magic number of 16, Boston is guaranteed a playoff spot, regardless of remaining games. However, they face a challenging road ahead.
In addition to Seattle and Texas, the Red Sox also have the Kansas City Royals (71-69) and Tampa Bay Rays (71-70) nipping at their heels in a crowded AL Wild Card race. That's without mentioning the Yankees, who are currently ahead of Boston, though their results matter more for seeding than for Boston actually clinching a spot.
The Red Sox are also dealing with injuries to key players down the stretch – most notably outfielder Wilyer Abreu and star rookie Roman Anthony, the latter of whom has been ruled out for 4-6 weeks with an oblique strain, essentially ending his regular season.
If Boston had to do it entirely themselves, they would need 16 wins before the season ends to make it to the playoffs. With 20 games left, that means going 16-4 over the rest of the way — a very strong (and admittedly unrealistic) finish that would give them a final record of 94-68.
More realistically, every rival loss buys Boston one "free" step toward the postseason. For example, if the Red Sox were to go 8-12 over their final 20 games of the season, they would still need eight combined losses by the teams chasing them to reach the magic number of 16. If Boston goes .500 (10-10) to end the season, they would still need six rival losses combined.
If Boston can split the upcoming tough series (for example, take 2 of 3 from Arizona, then steal 1 of 3 from the Yankees) and Seattle or Texas loses a few games in their next week, the magic number will fall quickly. Boston’s own Yankees series at Fenway Park (starting Sept. 12) is the biggest single opportunity for them to directly lower the number by taking multiple wins.
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