Red Sox insider has contract prediction for Tyler O'Neill to avoid qualifying offer

Every impending MLB free agent can be extended a universal qualifying offer to remain with their previous ballclub for another year.

The figure matches the mean of the 125 highest-paid players in the league and has been set at $21.05 million for 2025. That would be a hefty raise for impending free agent Tyler O'Neill.

The outfielder posted one of the best seasons of his career with the Boston Red Sox in 2024, and he was key as one of the team's few righties in the lineup. But every aspect of his performance may not be worthy of the pay hike of the qualifying offer, and Sean McAdam of MassLive agrees.

O'Neill slashed .241/.336/.511 with a .847 OPS and a team-leading 31 homers for Boston. He also contributed 18 doubles and 61 RBI over 113 games, the second-most he's played in a season over his seven-year career. O'Neill's swing is well suited to Fenway Park, which could bode well for a potential future with the Red Sox.

Red Sox reporter Sean McAdam thinks Boston may pursue a short extension with Tyler O'Neill instead of the qualifying offer

But O'Neill has a lengthy injury history and is far from consistent offensively. The slugger has never posted more than 138 games in a season, and he averages just over 84 games per year throughout his career. It could be hard to justify giving a player known for such frequent injuries such a drastic pay raise.

O'Neill also struck out 159 times for the Sox, which didn't help their already strikeout-prone offense. Boston fanned 1,570 times in 2024, and O'Neill's second-percentile strikeout rate won't help lessen that number next year.

McAdam believes the qualifying offer would be too much money based on O'Neill's injury history — he did miss a third of the season, but his injuries were mostly freak accidents, like a collision with Rafael Devers and a leg infection. O'Neill doesn't usually get so lucky, though, and is on the bench for long periods each year. McAdam thinks the Sox could try to extend O'Neill with a short-term contract that includes some protections if he finds himself injured often, which may be more financially wise for the team than the $21.05 million qualifying offer.

The Red Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide whether or not to extend a qualifying offer to O'Neill. Boston is desperate for a righty bat, but McAdams' concerns about O'Neill's durability will be key points of discussion from the front office.

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