Predicting free agent destinations for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta

Several Red Sox players are unlikely to return for 2025, and starting pitcher Nick Pivetta is one of them. With the way the 2024 season ended, it just doesn't feel as if a reunion is all that likely.

Pivetta finished the year with a 6-12 record, 4.14 ERA, and 172 strikeouts over 145 2/3 innings. Despite his lower ERA and a K/9 above league average (10.6), he surrendered 1.7 HR/9 and registered a barely league average 103 ERA+. While he can last well into the sixth and seventh innings, he can just as easily blow up early in the game and take his team completely out of it.

Spotrac estimates Pivetta is worth $60 million over four years. Between the highs and lows from this season and entering his age-32 campaign, that might be too rich for what the Red Sox have grown accustomed to paying for.

Rewarding his hot and cold performance from 2024 with a larger financial commitment is perhaps a risk better suited for other teams to take on. So where might Pivetta land if the Sox opt to move on?

Baltimore Orioles

Orioles ace Corbin Burnes is expected to sign a massive contract in the $200 million range, and Baltimore isn't expected to pay that. With all of the bargain shopping they've done in recent years, Pivetta's price range seems to be right up their alley.

The Orioles’ main priority will be retooling their bullpen. While they need more starters, they certainly don't need to go overboard and overpay for the high-end options out there. Slating Pivetta into the third spot behind Grayson Rodriguez and Zac Eflin would give the Orioles just enough starting power to maintain their success and provide flexibility to trade for a rental at the deadline without breaking the bank.

After being swept in the Wild Card series by the Royals, the Orioles will be planning for 2025 with the postseason in mind, and adding Pivetta would provide depth in a division loaded with starting pitching. 

Houston Astros

Among the problems the Astros have to solve, adding another starting pitcher has the least room for error. In 2024, Framber Valdez was largely his usual, dominant self while Hunter Brown finally settled in and Yusei Kikuchi had the best season of his career. Justin Verlander will either retire or find another team, and his absence won't be an issue after he had the second-worst season of his career. Adding Pivetta to the Astros starting pitching staff provides insurance at the back of the rotation and has little downside.

The Astros' lone heavy investment in their rotation is Lance McCullers Jr., who signed an $85 million extension years back and is returning from Tommy John surgery. Houston can afford to pay Pivetta his value while also keeping in mind the potential high cost it might take to retain Alex Bregman.

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation was just about as ... unspectacular as it gets in 2024. The unit ranked 20th in ERA and 19th in WHIP. Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Kyle Gibson led the way. Also, Lance Lynn wasn't bad, and he could be retained on a team-friendly $11 million option for 2025. But St. Louis still needs to upgrade.

If they sign Pivetta and he pitches at the same level or better than he did this year, the NL Central division race could tip in the Cardinals’ favor. That division is constantly up for grabs, and Milwaukee Brewers, who are the reigning champs, are set to lose a decent amount of talent. Can't say many people are worried about the Pirates, Cubs and Reds, either.

Though a roster shakeup is inevitable within the next two years for this aging, master-of-none Cardinals team, having a couple of constants will be critical. Pivetta would give the Cardinals a reliable starter right in their mid-market payroll wheelhouse, which kinds of falls in line with the rest of their pitching signings over the last decade or so.

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