The Boston Red Sox deciding to give Nick Pivetta the qualifying offer last year — one-year, $21.05 million — was a bizarre decision on its face. Pivetta simply didn't have a 2024 season that warranted a $21.05 million payday in 2025. He pitched just over 140 innings for a 4.14 ERA, which just about screams "average."
The Red Sox committing to paying him quite that much was weird, but what was weirder was that Pivetta didn't accept it. Instead, he bet on himself. Whether it was more years or more money he was looking for (probably the former, as it would've taken a pretty massive egoist to believe a 4.76 career ERA was worthy of an upwards of $21 million), he turned down the QO and hit the market as a free agent.
It's no surprise that Pivetta's free agency drew out into the very first days of spring training. Again, his 2024 season was entirely average, and he missed some time with an injury last year. It was hard to believe that any team would want to take an average pitcher if it also meant giving the Red Sox a compensation-round draft pick for losing a QO player.
However, on Wednesday night, Jeff Passan reported that the Padres had taken the bait. San Diego and Pivetta reached an agreement on a four-year, $55 million deal with a really weird structure.
He'll get just $4 million in 2025 (which includes a $3 million signing bonus), $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. The deal also contains club options after Years 2 and 3.
BREAKING: Right-hander Nick Pivetta and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $55 million contract that includes a pair of opt-outs, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 13, 2025
Nick Pivetta’s deal with the Padres has opt-outs after Year 2 and Year 3. The deal will pay him a $3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary in 2025, $19 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 13, 2025
Padres sign former Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta on a four-year, $55 million deal with a weird pay structure
So, that original assessment was correct: Pivetta definitely wasn't worth $21.05 million a year. His deal has a $13.75 million AAV, which sounds more like it, but the mere $4 million they'll pay him this season is far from a vote of confidence about his abilities. Of course, they'll then probably overpay him in 2026, when he's owed $19 million, but it's impossible to understand the thinking that went into apportioning pay like this, and the absence of a club option after 2025, before the Padres will actually start having to pay him the big bucks.
This is strange all-around, but we could expect nothing less from the Padres, who are scraping the bottom of the barrel now (they signed Jason Heyward and Connor Joe this week) after wasting a lot of time chasing Roki Sasaki or dealing with ownership turmoil.
And the Red Sox get a draft pick out of the deal. They bet on Pivetta overestimating himself, and it actually worked out pretty well for them.