The Boston Red Sox had a busy offseason, adding pieces to what they hope will be another trip to the playoffs after a three-year absence. One of those pieces was Dodgers World Series hero Walker Buehler.
Buehler shut out the Yankees for five innings to propel the Dodgers to a Game 3 win and then closed out the Yankees in Game 5 to bring another title to LA. Now, he's tasked to help bring home another title to the Red Sox. Over a year removed from Tommy John Surgery, what can we expect from Buehler in 2025? Sox fans will get their first look at the righty on March 2 during his spring training debut against the Mets.
Buehler had a disappointing regular season in 2024, winning just one game in 16 starts with a career-high 5.38 ERA. More alarming was his strikeout rate, which fell to 7.69, another career low. Buehler's velocity was there but he was not getting swings and misses.
In the playoffs, signs of the old Buehler started to surface. Buehler went 1-1 in four appearances and had 13 strikeouts in 15 innings of work. His K/9 rate crept up slightly to 7.80. Buehler has not pitched a full season since 2021, having had Tommy John surgery in 2022. In 2021, Buehler went 16-4 in 33 starts with a 2.47 ERA and a K/9 rate of 9.19. That followed two straight seasons in which his K/9 rate was over 10.
Walker Buehler on the mound in a Sox uni. You're welcome. pic.twitter.com/6oH6IHwCUv
— Red Sox (@RedSox) February 15, 2025
What can Red Sox fans expect from Buehler this season, now fully recovered from his second Tommy John surgery? One recent success story should give Sox fans hope. In 2023, Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery and won the AL Cy Young Award with the Astros. Verlander went 18-4 with an MLB-best 1.75 ERA and had 185 strikeouts. His strikeout total was down, but Verlander was able to use all his pitches and pitch his team into the middle innings, turning the game over to a solid bullpen. Buehler has a seven-pitch repertoire himself, and could also make some minor adjustments to get quick outs and prolong his outings.
Another pitcher that Buehler could emulate is former Cardinals' ace Adam Wainwright. Wainwright missed all of 2011 after surgery and returned the next season to make 32 starts and posted a solid ERA of 3.94. He finished in the top three in NL Cy Young voting in two of the next three years. Buehler has better velocity than Wainwright and has made over 30 starts twice in three years from 2019-21. The one year that he failed to do it was during the pandemic-shortened season in 2020.
Should Red Sox fans expect a Cy Young season from Buehler in 2025? That might be a bit of a stretch, given that this is his first year pitching in the AL and he'll have to adjust his stuff as the year progresses. They can, however, expect a pitcher who can get them fairly deep into games, pitch 175+ innings and have a K/9 rate that hovers between nine and 10. The Red Sox also have a pitcher working on just a one-year deal, hungry to prove himself for what will likely be his last big-money contract. A small investment to pay for what could be one of the winter's biggest pitching steals.