MLB free agency officially opened on November 2 and a signing blitz is expected before the coming lockout. November 2 was also the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers (QO) to their eligible players, and the Boston Red Sox's free agency pursuits may have gotten a bit harder.
The Red Sox need a power bat in their lineup and this year's free agent class underwhelms in that category, so they've been linked to the same few candidates as every other team in need of power. Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Brandon Lowe and Jake Bauers are some of the top sluggers in the class and Boston could accommodate them with some well-placed trades.
But all four players (plus Ryan Jeffers, if the Sox are considering going the catcher route despite having Adley Rutschman) received the QO from their former teams. The total this year is $23.15 million. Players have until November 17 to accept or reject the QO, and if they reject it, they will become a free agent and their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick from the new team that signs them.
Many of this year's QO recipients are likely to decline the offer (subscription required). If they can sign a free agent deal before the current CBA expires in the evening on December 1, they could possibly skirt a potential impending salary cap policy.
Many top Red Sox free agent targets received qualifying offers, adding a draft pick onto their price this offseason
The Red Sox traded away much of their expendable top prospect talent either last offseason or at the trade deadline, so giving up a compensatory draft pick to sign one of this year's free agents could be a big turn off for Craig Breslow. Boston has been able to pull some top tier talent from the compensatory round of the MLB draft, with Roman Anthony being their most notable selection.
The Red Sox would have to do a lot of roster shuffling to accommodate these free agents, which, coupled with the draft pick, could be an additional deterrent for Breslow. Having to trade at least one outfielder, or maybe two, to make Arozarena or Suzuki fit is no small task, especially when Boston has been so committed to Jarren Duran over the years. Bauers and Lowe are infielders, and the Sox's infield is packed unless they abandon their rotating designated hitter structure to appoint someone there full-time. A free agent would be a good candidate for that, or Willson Contreras.
While the Red Sox have much to consider when weighing the risks and benefits of signing each player, the risk of losing a draft pick shouldn't be a deterrent for one of the biggest markets in the league. The Red Sox don't need to operate that way. But it would be foolish to burn a draft pick for a suboptimal fit. Unfortunately, the Sox only have a month to ponder their decisions before the lockout is expected to begin.
