The Boston Red Sox don't have to worry themselves about their qualifying offer (QO) candidates this offseason. Sonny Gray is ineligible for one since the Minnesota Twins offered it to him when his contract with them expired, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Patrick Sandoval aren't worth the $23.15 million total for the year.
But that doesn't free the Sox from having to worry about the QO at all. According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, free agents Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki and Brandon Lowe are all expected to receive the QO (subscription required).
It's still quite early for the Red Sox to be formally linked to any of these free agent candidates, but many of them meet their needs. All four players are sluggers and Boston is desperate for home run power. They play positions that the Sox need or could easily open, like left field, designated hitter or second base.
If the Red Sox covet any or all of those players, a QO makes it harder to sign them. Not only are they guaranteed $23.15 million for the 2027 season from their recent teams, any team that signs a QO recipient is charged a draft pick.
Three of the Red Sox's expected free agent targets are likely to receive the qualifying offer, which could deter Boston from signing them
The cost of a draft pick makes signing a QO recipient about more than just money. Prospects are not only potential future stars (the Red Sox selected Roman Anthony with a compensation pick after they gave the QO to Eduardo Rodriguez), but they're also trade chips. Boston sold most of its high-end talent either over the offseason or during the year and Craig Breslow and Co. may see draft picks as too important to sacrifice at this time.
The state of the farm system should not deter the Red Sox from making moves to try and win a title, however. Before the new CBA, John Henry and Fenway Sports Group have more than enough money to sign whatever talent they need and make any luxry tax payments that come with them. A stacked farm system doesn't win playoff games.
Breslow is a savvy dafter and he uses the farm system to his advantage — he drafted Payton Tolle, one of the most valuable rookies this season, and has made massive trades with prospects the Red Sox were hoarding. If winning is as important as front offices love to say it is, the Red Sox won't play it safe because they're afraid to lose a draft pick, but it's been about a half decade since the organization put winning first.
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