The Boston Red Sox have two rookies who have thrived in their first full campaigns in the big leagues.
Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela's seasons have been pleasant surprises for the Sox and their fans, and the two players have held firm spots in the American League Rookie of the Year conversation for much of the year.
But oddsmakers have held a few candidates in higher regard than both Boston's rookies all season and one of the choices is particularly egregious.
DraftKings and FanDuel list Colton Cowser and Austin Wells as the most likely choices for AL Rookie of the Year, in that order. Abreu ranks third in both sets of odds, FanDuel has Rafaela tied with Luis Gil for fourth place, but DraftKings pushes him all the way down to fifth. Rafaela falling to fifth place is shocking as it is, but Wells ranking ahead of both Rafaela and Abreu is ridiculous.
Wells is batting .255/.342/.418 with a .760 OPS, 14 doubles, a triple, nine homers and 37 RBI for the Yankees over 88 games. He's been great in the past month with a .311/.388/.495 slash and four homers in his last 30 appearances. But despite his great month, Rafaela has been equally great since the All-Star break, and both he and Abreu top Wells' full-season metrics (as of Aug. 23.)
The rook is having himself a season. pic.twitter.com/ttsteVImrG
— Red Sox (@RedSox) August 22, 2024
Abreu is batting .265/.331/.500 with an .831 OPS, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 14 homers, 49 RBI and seven steals in 98 games. His 26 two-baggers are good for the lead among AL rookies — Cowser ranks second with 19.
Rafaela is slashing .264/.295/.412 with a .707 OPS, 19 doubles, four triples,13 homers, 61 RBI and 17 stolen bags. He leads all AL rookies in hits, runs scored, RBI and total bases. In his past 30 games, he's batting .313/.358/.391 with two homers and five steals.
Red Sox's Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu need more respect in American League Rookie of the Year conversation
The three players are hard to compare defensively, as Wells is a catcher, which may well be the hardest position on the field — he deserves plenty of credit for his output as a backstop. Wells is an elite framer, and ranks in the 95th percentile for his abilities. He's an above-average blocker and ranks just above average in pop time, but just below in caught stealing above average, all according to Baseball Savant.
But Rafaela's defensive situation isn't comparable to anyone else's in this rookie class, or maybe in the league. He shuffles between center field and shortstop frequently with highlight-reel skills in both slots and he's maintained consistent offensive output while doing it.
Admittedly, Rafaela's defensive stats don't look great on paper — he owns negative three outs above average on the season. Most of his mistakes have come at shortstop and occurred early in the slate when Boston's defense was in shambles. He's been charged with the most errors on balls hit toward the first base side, and the Red Sox have only had inexperienced second basemen beside Rafaela all year. His stats aren't perfect — and are likely what's dragging him down in the ROY ranks — but the eye test shows improvement and some Gold Glove-caliber plays in his arsenal.
Abreu has played stellar defense all season. He's clocked three outs above average in the outfield, including his fair share of home run robberies, and has one of the strongest arms in the league, ranked in the 99th percentile.
Wells, Abreu and Rafaela have all posted great seasons and rightfully deserve to be in the ROY conversation. But Abreu and Rafaela deserve more respect among their competition. The Orioles have received a lot of attention for their farm system in recent years and the Yankees are, well, the Yankees — Cowser and Wells entered the season with more hype around them than Boston's rookies, and it shows in the odds.