Surging Red Sox youngsters battling one another for AL Rookie of the Year

It’s rare to see the Boston Red Sox with even one candidate in the American League Rookie of the Year race. Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida received shares of the vote last season, which marked the first time a Sox player has received AL ROY votes since Andrew Benintendi in 2017. 

Since the All-Star break, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela have been key contributors to a red-hot Sox offense. That being said, what truly invigorates the Sox fanbase is how these two guys play defense. Given how the 2 previous last place teams struggled mightily with run prevention, Abreu and Rafaela's athleticism and defensive prowess have been invaluable in sparking an identity change for the organization. Rafaela and Abreu’s highlight reel outfield play give Red Sox fans feelings that they have not had since watching Betts and Bradley patrol the outfield during the mid-to-late 2010s. 

That Killer B's comparison might seem like a stretch, but the stats truly show how spectacular the rookies’ defense is. According to FanGraphs’ 2024 outfield UZR rankings (range runs above average, one of the best markers for evaluating both individual and team defense), Rafaela and Abreu are both top 11 in all of baseball. Abreu ranks seventh and Rafaela 11th. Essentially, this stat is backing up the eye test for all who consistently watch Abreu in right field and Rafaela in center field because it illuminates their ability to have quick jumps, run the right routes, cover a lot of ground, and make both accurate and intelligent throws into the infield. These two are much better defensively than the average outfielder, even as rookies.

In terms of their Rookie of the Year candidacy, it’s a long shot for either to take home the honors. If their production the rest of the season continues at the same rate, Abreu and Rafaela will eat up each other’s votes. Baseball Reference and FanGraphs tab Abreu as the better candidate right now in terms of wins above replacement, which is reflected in the AL Rookie of the Year betting odds at sportsbooks. However, there is still plenty of season left for Rafaela to overtake Abreu.

It’s hard to exactly quantify whether Rafaela or Abreu is more valuable to the team, since Abreu has better rate and advanced stats whereas Rafaela has better counting stats. Rafaela's Rookie of the Year case is he has over 100 more plate appearances than Abreu, and bailed the team out as a fill-in shortstop after the Trevor Story injury due to his freak athleticism and positional versatility. The case for Abreu is quality is better than quantity.

Abreu and Rafaela play the game in different ways, but they will be inextricably linked moving forward due to their proximity in age, service time, and how they compliment each other positionally. A month ago, FanGraphs ranked Rafaela slightly ahead of Abreu in terms of future value. Abreu currently has the edge on Rafaela, but it’s been pretty much dead even.