Kikè Hernandez is the Biggest X-Factor for the Boston Red Sox in 2023
By Tim Burke
It seems impossible, given how miserable the 2022 season was, but the Red Sox were only eight games back of a playoff spot despite their last-place finish in the American League East. That is only a little more than one more win a month. It is incredible how in a 162-game marathon of a season, it is the little things that make the biggest difference. I fully believe this Red Sox team is better than last year with their improved defense, bullpen, and plate discipline. However, for the Red Sox to reach the playoffs in 2023, I believe the most important piece of the puzzle is Kikè Hernandez.
Hernandez was Boston's breakout star for the 2021 season. According to Baseball Reference, Hernadez's 5 Wins Above Replacement was tied for best on the Red Sox with Xander Bogaerts. Hernadez posted a strong .788 OPS while driving in 60 runs. He thrived as the Red Sox's primary lead-off man posting a .799 OPS at the top of the order. Hernandez also won a Fielding Bible Award for his outstanding defense in both center field and second base, finishing third in Defensive Runs Saved among all MLB center fielders with 19, which is remarkable given that he played multiple positions throughout the season.
2022 was a different story for Hernandez. He struggled mightily out of the gate and could not build upon his strong second half of the season and legendary Postseason. Heading into the 2022 season, Kikè Hernandez had a career of .748 OPS, but in 2022 Hernandez posted an OPS of .629, which feels like an outlier given his career numbers. He missed most of the season due to a hip injury and never hit his stride at the plate. Hernadez tends to be rather streaky in the batter's box, but it typically evens out by the season's end. The seasons he has played the most regularly are historically his best.
Red Sox believe Kikè Hernadez will play an essential role in the organization
The baseball world is harsh and has a "what have you done for me lately" mindset. Some in the Boston sports media have questioned whether Kikè Hernandez is qualified to play shortstop at Fenway this season. Did we all forget what Hernadez did in 2021? The Red Sox organization has not. They have allowed Hernandez to take on a significant role as the new starting shortstop and off the field in the clubhouse. I wrote earlier this week that Justin Turner is the unofficial Captain of the Boston Red Sox. The same case could be made for Hernandez, who recruited Turner in hopes of changing the Red Sox culture. Last season, there were reports that several veteran Red Sox players were not pleased with the unique pregame routine of rookie first baseman Tristan Casas.
From the outside looking in, the Red Sox are trying to create a more welcoming culture for the younger players and allow them to be themselves as long as they are prepared to play. This can make a huge difference for a rebuilding team that features several young players with plenty more on the way, and it appears Hernandez is leading the charge of changing the clubhouse culture at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have allowed Hernadez to have input on several key decisions about the future of this ball club. The Red Sox believed in Hernandez being an everyday player when they signed him in 2021, and they believe he can be an essential part of this team in 2023 and perhaps beyond.
In an interview with Alex Spier of the Boston Globe, Red Sox hitting coach Pete Fatse spoke about the impact Hernandez can have on this team. "At his best, he's a very dynamic guy on both sides of the ball. … He can get on base, he knows the strike zone, and when he's going really well, he's impacting the ball to all fields. He can be a special player."
Everyone knows what he is capable of. The concern is whether can be that player consistently. Was 2021 the fluke year or was it last year? I am confident in Hernadez's 2021 season being the outlier compared to 2022 because he has produced seasons with similar numbers to 2021. In 2018 with the Dodgers, Hernandez set a career-high in home runs, 21, and OPS .806 in 145 games. So I think it is reasonable to expect Hernadez to return to being a legitimate difference-maker for the Red Sox.
Hernandez is Boston's X-Factor in 2023 because he can impact the game in several areas, whether at the plate, in the field, or in the clubhouse. Again, if the Red Sox won a little more than an extra game a month last season, they're in the playoffs. That could be an extra game-saving catch, an extra run, or a clutch hit. Hernandez can provide the Red Sox with the ability to impact the game with both the bat and glove as much as anyone on Boston's roster. If he can produce numbers similar to 2021, Hernandez may lead Boston back to the playoffs.