Red Sox face a leadoff hitter dilemma that Kiké Hernández can solve

The Boston Red Sox will have several new additions to their lineup this season but they would be best served by having a familiar face at the top of the order.

Boston cycled through seven different leadoff hitters in 2022 who combined for a putrid .235/.295/.370 slash line, per FanGraphs. Finding stability at the top of the lineup with a hitter they can trust to get on base at a high clip is among the priorities in training camp this spring.

Boston Red Sox need an effective leadoff hitter to set the tone

It was widely speculated that Masataka Yoshida would be given an opportunity to claim the leadoff spot entering the season. Despite that he typically found himself in the middle of the lineup during his time in Japan, his keen batting eye and penchant for getting on base provides Yoshida with the skillset to thrive in that role.

Manager Alex Cora isn't committing to using Yoshida as his leadoff hitter though. His reasons have more to do with the hitter who would follow him in the lineup rather than his faith in Yoshida's ability to handle the role. Cora's ideal lineup construction would avoid stacking Yoshida with fellow left-handed hitter Rafael Devers at the top of the order, according to MassLive's Chris Cotillo.

“My main goal is to keep Raffy and Yoshida split up and try to keep Raffy in the second spot,” Cora said. “That would be great. This whole thing about Yoshida leading off, I don’t know. If I mentioned it, I didn’t mean to. He might lead off. But he might hit in the middle of lineup That’s what he’s done his whole career. So I think it’s about personnel, who we have."

Devers hit in the No. 2 hole in 455 of his 614 plate appearances last season and it was his most productive spot in the lineup, hitting .307/.371/.566, per Baseball Reference. He's the best hitter in the Red Sox lineup so batting him second helps find a balance of maximizing his plate appearances with providing Devers with opportunities to drive in runs.

Speaking of driving in runs, the Red Sox are counting on Yoshida to deliver in that department as well. Several scouts who were baffled by the contract that the Red Sox gave Yoshida have been pessimistic that the power he displayed in Japan will translate against MLB pitching. We probably won't see a 30-homer season out of Yoshida this year but his bat has enough pop to rack up extra-base hits.

It might not be evident by the box score results so far this spring but Yoshida has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields with several deep fly balls that fell short on the warning track. The early returns suggest he's more than a mere slap hitter, in which case he could sufficiently fill the cleanup spot for the Red Sox.

Cora has historically preferred to alternate lefties and right-handed hitters, especially near the top of the lineup. Inserting consecutive left-handed batters at the top against a southpaw is almost out of the question. Even against right-handed pitchers, the Red Sox should be hesitant to use Yoshida and Devers in the top two spots considering the league's increasing reliance on bullpens. Avoiding clusters of players who hit from the same side of the plate will make the opponent's bullpen management more of a challenge.

If Cora's primary concern with using Yoshida as the leadoff hitter is a hesitance to use consecutive lefties at the top, that probably rules out a few of the other potential options. Triston Casas would be an unorthodox option since the hulking first baseman is expected to grow into his power to become a middle-of-the-lineup threat, but his excellent on-base skills would make him an asset at the top.

Alex Verdugo has modest success in a very limited sample as a leadoff hitter. Jarren Duran fits the mold of a speedy leadoff hitter who would be an ideal solution if he ever taps into his potential enough to stick in the big leagues. Any of these options could potentially fill the role, but all of them are left-handed hitters with discouraging platoon splits.

Case for Kiké Hernández batting leadoff for the Red Sox

If the Red Sox prefer to have a right-handed bat ahead of Devers at the top of the order, Kiké Hernández should be given another opportunity.

Hernández opened the 2021 season, his first with the Red Sox, as the leadoff hitter, although it was mostly due to a lack of options since it's a role he had never been entrusted with before. He struggled to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line through an early season slump before Cora was forced to replace him at the top of the lineup in early June.

The collection of misfits that Cora toyed with over a span of approximately three weeks proved to be an even bigger disappointment, combining to hit .152 with a horrendous 18 wRC+. No other team in the American League got worse than a 75 wRC+ from the leadoff spot in that time frame.

Hernández reclaimed the leadoff role later that month and made the most of his second chance, hitting .266 with a .832 OPS in the second half of that season. His .361 OBP in the second half ranked 16th among qualified AL hitters. He proved he was capable of handling the leadoff spot, Hernández simply needed some time to acclimate to the new role.

Last season saw Kiké get off to another miserably slow start that once again forced him to relinquish the leadoff role. This time he didn't have sufficient time to recover due to a lengthy stint on the injured list. He fared better when he returned in the second half but nowhere near the scorching stretch we witnessed after the break the previous year. His modest improvement wasn't enough to climb out of the early-season hole he dug himself into, as he finished with a .222/.291/.338 slash line.

The underwhelming results from last season washed away some of the optimism surrounding Hernández but he should be able to get back on track now that he's healthy. There's no doubt that health was a factor in last season's slump. What was originally diagnosed as a hip flexor strain was eventually revealed to be a hematoma in his core. He basically had a bowl of blood sitting in the muscle, preventing him from using the right side of his core. Compensating for the pain broke his mechanics at the plate and he couldn't fix his swing until he recovered from a procedure to drain the blood that had pooled in his muscle.

With the traumatic experience behind him, Hernández enters camp healthy and ready to roll. He's expected to serve as the primary shortstop for the Red Sox this season. While his versatility will enable him to spend some time in other spots, spending more time in the infield will save him the wear and tear of chasing fly balls in the outfield and banging into the center field wall. That should improve the odds of Kiké staying healthy.

Hernández should enter the season without the injury concerns that plagued him last season. He won't need the time to adjust to the leadoff role he required in 2021. He's better positioned to succeed from start to finish than he has been since joining the Red Sox.

Hernández is a notoriously streaky hitter so we shouldn't be overly alarmed if he does get off to another slow start. If Cora sticks with him, Kiké will deliver. If the Red Sox want a right-handed bat to lead off, they have no better option than the player who has already proven he can succeed in the role for them.