3 under-the-radar starting pitchers the Red Sox could sign this offseason
Landing an ace would be nice, but the Red Sox need to fill out their entire rotation
This offseason ushers in a new direction and a fresh leadership group for the Boston Red Sox.
After a frustrating year saw the Red Sox finish 78-84, it was clear they needed to make a change. Ownership fired Chaim Bloom and conducted an extensive (albeit heavily scrutinized) search for his replacement before settling on Craig Breslow to lead the baseball operations department.
Breslow is tasked with fixing several issues on the Red Sox’ roster, but there might be none more prevalent than the starting rotation. Boston’s rotation amassed a 4.45 FIP and 11.7 fWAR last season. Furthermore, the group struggled to get production out of its most-utilized arms. Nick Pivetta, who led the team with 170 innings, delivered a shaky 4.36 FIP and .304 BABIP.
While the Red Sox need to address their starting rotation, signing every big-name free agent simply isn’t attainable. Here are three under-the-radar rotation options that Breslow and his staff should pursue this winter.
Wade Miley
Miley will be 37 next season, but that doesn’t negate the fact that he has been a steady rotation option for several years. He has kept his ERA below 3.37 in each of the last three seasons, and he owns a sub-4.90 xFIP in all 13 of his major league campaigns.
In 2023, Miley made 23 starts, posting a 3.14 ERA, 46.3 percent ground-ball rate, and .234 BABIP. While his strikeout rate dropped and his home run rate increased, he cut his walk rate down to an impressive 2.84 BB/9 clip. He has consistently showcased his ability to find the strike zone and induce weak contact, making him a much-welcomed veteran addition to any rotation in baseball.
Miley is still at the point in his career where he doesn’t need to settle for a one-year deal. Don’t rule out the idea of Breslow, whose Cubs front office acquired Miley via waivers in 2022, making a push to sign the veteran southpaw.
Kyle Gibson
Gibson had a strong 2023 campaign in the Orioles’ rotation, starting 30-plus games for the third consecutive season. Averaging 5.8 innings per start, the right-hander reminded prospective teams that the best ability is “availability.”
En route to going 15-9 for the AL East champion Orioles, Gibson posted a 4.13 xFIP, 7.39 K/9, and 2.58 BB/9. In addition to highlighting his impressive extension and ground ball rate, the veteran’s Baseball Savant page celebrates his Breaking Run Value of 12, which ranks in the 96th percentile. Indeed, his sweeper was quite special last season, inducing an impressive .171 wOBA, 46.7 percent whiff rate, and 24.5 percent put-away rate.
The 36-year-old is going to have plenty of suitors this offseason, but it would make sense to see a strong push from the Red Sox, who had front-row seats to the Kyle Gibson show last season. (The veteran tossed five shutout innings against Boston in his 2023 finale.)
Eric Lauer
Lauer is an incredibly appealing reclamation project for the Red Sox. He was a strong rotation option as recently as 2022, but he took a major step back this past season as his walk and home run rates soared. If the Red Sox can work with Lauer and get him back to his 2022 form, they will have a solid rotation piece on their hands.
So what exactly went wrong for Lauer in his final season with the Brewers? One glaring concern is how infrequently he threw the slider. In 2022, he threw it 17.6 percent of the time, using it to induce a .205 xBA and 24.8 percent whiff rate. This past season, though, Lauer threw his slider only 66 times (7.8 percent). It was just as effective as in years past, yet he relied on it less. Instead, he threw more cutters. As a result, opponents feasted, slugging .568 when facing his cutter.
A shoulder injury did limit Lauer to just one outing from June through September, so the Red Sox will need to do their due diligence on his health before putting pen to paper. But if his physical goes well, the Red Sox have no reason not to sign Lauer in hopes that a retooling of his pitch selection will lead to results.
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