Garrett Crochet can flip disadvantage in Cy Young race vs Tarik Skubal on its head

The American League Cy Young race is as close as it's been all season. Garrett Crochet and reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal keep trading blows with dominant outings. Following Wednesday's action, Skubal was sitting at -125 in the betting odds according to BetMGM, while Crochet was +100.

In his most recent performance, Crochet battled through six innings, but still only allowed two runs, striking out seven without a walk. His ERA now sits at 2.40, and he took the Major League lead in strikeouts with 214 (Skubal is at 212). The lefty's performance was enough to help the Sox finish off a four-game sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore.

The box score on Skubal’s last outing (August 25 in Sacramento) is deceiving. While he only allowed one earned run over 6 2/3 innings, he allowed five unearned runs, including a grand slam to A's catcher Shea Langeliers that ended his outing. The lefty did strike out 12, though. Skubal was hit with a loss in the sweep.

There isn't much separating the two heavyweights. They rank one and two in the AL in Ks and innings pitched. Skubal is tops in ERA, while Crochet is third, and Skubal leads the AL in WHIP, while Crochet is sixth. The aces currently have their respective squads in playoff positions.

Crochet and Skubal are going to go punch-for-punch down the stretch, each with five starts remaining (assuming nothing changes). But there is one big difference between the two lefties: their remaining opponents.

Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal's remaining opponents favor one starter over the other

If everything stays in order, Skubal will go vs. the Mets, vs. the White Sox, at the Marlins, vs. the Braves, then at the Guardians in his final five starts. Crochet is set to go vs. the Guardians, at the Athletics, vs. the Yankees, at the Rays, then vs. the Tigers. There is an obvious difference in the quality of opponents there.

In September, Skubal will get to pitch three of his final five games against teams completely out of the playoff picture in the White Sox, Marlins, and Braves, and the Guardians are hanging on to the playoff fight by a thread. By the time he faces them at the end of September, they will likely be out of the playoff picture. The only team currently holding a playoff spot, the Mets, he gets to face at home, in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.

On the other side, Crochet gets two teams in the thick of the playoff picture in the Yankees and Tigers. He will also have to pitch in the band boxes at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa and Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. The only common opponent they get is the Guardians, but Crochet gets them while they are still pushing to make the playoffs.

While an easier schedule down the stretch for Skubal might make it easier for him to inflate his numbers and pull away from Crochet, all the voters will be able to see the cupcake schedule down the stretch he got. It also means that any major misstep by him will hurt him a lot more. Should Crochet show off the dominance he has all season, it will look much better for him, and any minor shakes won't be held against him as much.

The fight for the AL Cy Young is coming down to the wire. It's certainly going to be a close race, but the final stretch seems to point in Crochet's favor if he can seize the opportunity. While he will certainly need to perform, the standard he has set so far this season makes the outlook good.