Let’s start by saying that if we were making this trade before the season, the return would’ve been much bigger. If we were making it at the last deadline, it would’ve been even bigger. If it were made after that nine-WAR season, wow, the Boston Red Sox would have gotten a huge return.
But the Red Sox decided to hold on to Jarren Duran. I know you could say you can’t blame them, but you really can. They made it glaringly obvious that they were never going to commit to him long-term. They never made him any contract offers unlike their efforts with so many other young players.
Now, we’re here. As of June 29, Duran is hitting .200 on the season. He’s striking out 30% of the time. His value was so high two years ago — and it was still high just a few months ago — but now it feels like the Red Sox would be lucky to get much for him at all.
However, the San Diego Padres have always been enamored with Duran. And even with his current struggles, there's belief Duran could still turn things around and put together a solid 2026 and have a productive 2027 for San Diego.
What could the Red Sox get in return, though?
A realistic trade deadline return package for Red Sox's Jarren Duran
The big thing going for Duran’s value is his team control for another year after 2026. That should boost the value a considerable amount. It won't be enough to nab the Red Sox a top-100 prospect, but maybe a collection of intriguing names.
Let’s start with the top name: Jorge Quintana. The 19-year-old is the fifth-ranked prospect in the Padres' system. Quintana is a switch-hitting shortstop in Single-A, hitting .232/.321/.304 with nine doubles and two home runs this season. Quintana has driven in 24 runs, scored 26, and stolen 12 bases. While the numbers aren’t great, he’s seen more as a toolsy prospect with room to grow and some good under-the-hood numbers (like promising exit velocities). Boston would be taking a swing with him, but with Duran’s value not super high, they might feel it’s worth it.
Next is Diego Serna. The left-handed pitcher has only made one appearance in the DSL this season, so there isn’t much to go on, but he’s a classic lottery ticket. A 17-year-old left-handed pitcher is listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 lbs. He’s the 20th-ranked prospect in the system and signed for $1 million back in January. Clearly, there’s something to get excited about.
Finally, grab Romeo Sanabria (27th-ranked prospect in the system). Sanabria is a 24-year-old first baseman in Triple-A. He’s hitting .247/.344/.392 with 13 doubles and eight home runs. The left-handed hitter has 32 RBI, 34 runs scored, and five steals. Sanabria is likely just a depth piece, but with Willson Contreras potentially being moved as well, the Red Sox will need bodies at first base, and Sanabria can be a decent option. He’s good enough to warrant trading for but isn't good enough to be considered an untouchable. He’s flashed some potential at times, and Boston could maybe benefit from that down the road.
Is this a dream return? Absolutely not. The Red Sox have lost the luxury of a godfather offer from teams for Jarren Duran. Something like this could still be really strong and help the franchise begin building their next great roster.
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