Boston Red Sox relief pitcher stat predictions for the 2022 season

Stat Projections for the Red Sox up-and-down bullpen

In my final installment of projections for the 2022 Boston Red Sox, I’ll take a look at the team’s bullpen.

Like many other years, the Red Sox bullpen was quite the adventure in 2021, as the collapse of All-Star closer Matt Barnes forced unheralded arms into big roles come the postseason. This is also a group that has undergone some turnover this offseason, with Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman coming in to replace the departed Adam Ottavino and Garrett Richards.

Much like my starting pitcher projections, I was forced to make some assumptions. For one, I assumed that Barnes would be the full-time closer all season even though there is a very good chance he gets replaced by midseason. I also assumed that Garrett Whitlock would be in the bullpen all season despite that the Red Sox experimented with him in the starting rotation this spring.

As with my other installments of this series, every players statistics are predicted over the course of a full season. I focused only on the seven pitchers who are expected to get the most innings, although I included  analysis on some other arms at the end.

Red Sox relief pitcher: Matt Strahm

We’ve seen the story a million times before: A middling starter moves to the bullpen and becomes a dominant reliever. Whether it be because of a lack of a third pitch, mediocre control, or an inability to work deep into games, some pitchers are unable to unlock their full potential until they are moved into a relief role. Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, and Wade Davis are all recent examples of players who reinvented themselves when pitching in the late innings.

Matt Strahm could be another one of those guys. The lefty has bounced back and forth between the bullpen and starter, but he has been far better in shorter outings. His 5.08 ERA as a starter pales in comparison to his 2.90 ERA as a reliever. That bodes well for his new team, as the Red Sox plan to use him exclusively out of the bullpen.

Strahm’s pitcher profile makes it clear why he has been much better in a relief role. His straight, low 90’s fastball gets exposed when forced to work deep into games, but he excels in shorter spurts when he can spam his plus breaking balls. Batters hit just .169 against his curveball in 2019 and whiffed 27.3 percent of the time on his slider, per Baseball Savant. Unlike most soft-tossing lefties, however, Strahm doesn’t have excessive platoon splits, as right-handers actually posted a lower OPS against him than lefties.

The reason we don’t have more recent information on Strahm is because a recurring knee injury has limited him to 27 1/3 innings since 2019. The good news is that his arm has a clean bill of health, and he has looked sharp so far this spring.

Stat Predictions: 4.54 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9

Red Sox relief pitcher: Jake Diekman

Let’s get this out of the way, Red Sox fans: You are going to get frustrated watching Jake Diekman pitch this year. The stuff is downright nasty: He pairs a mid-90s sinker with a knee-bending slider that induced batters to whiff 47% of the time. It’s no wonder why he ranked in the top ten percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage. When he’s on, it’s hard to see how anybody makes contact against the big lefty.

The problem is that those moments are few and far between. Far too often, Diekman has little idea where his offerings are going. He’s walked over 5.0 batters per nine innings every year since 2017, making it harder to trust him in high-leverage situations. He also had a problem with the gopher ball last year, allowing a 1.5 HR/9 rate that was nearly double his career-high.

Diekman’s performance this spring has done little to inspire confidence. He has allowed seven runs and walked six over just 3 2/3 innings, leading to a gaudy 17.18 ERA. Most worrisome is that his slider’s velocity has dropped from 83 miles per hour to 78. Some of this can be attributed to the shortened spring training, but any velocity drop that significant is cause for concern.

If Diekman is able to recapture his elite stuff, however, there are few more talented arms in the Red Sox bullpen. Walks and home runs are always going to be part of his game, but anyone who can generate swings-and-misses at such a high rate can be of use to a manager.

Stat Predictions: 3.54 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 12.7 K/9

Red Sox relief pitcher: Hirokazu Sawamura

Few relievers in recent Red Sox history have arrived with more anticipation than Hirokazu Sawamura. The 33-year old righty came over from Japan with reports of a high 90’s fastball and a mid 90’s split-fingered. With how historically bad the 2020 Red Sox bullpen was, the addition of any pitcher with that kind of stuff was reason for excitement.

For the early part of the season, Sawamura lived up to the hype. His splitter and fastball were as advertised, and he began to work his way up the reliever depth chart as he dominated hitter after hitter. Yet as quickly as it had come together for Sawamura, it all fell apart. His second-half ERA rose by nearly two runs, his walk rate jumped from 4.5 to 7.8, and he appeared just three times in the postseason.

It’s not difficult to see where it all went wrong for Sawamura last year. His splitter may have been unhittable, as evident by its 46.7 whiff percentage, but his other two pitches were far less effective. Hitters slugged .584 off his fastball and .667 off his slider, and only grew more comfortable as the season went along. It’s difficult to succeed in the big leagues with only one pitch, and it’s even harder when your control is as poor as Sawamura’s.

With Matt Barnes still a major question mark and Garrett Whitlock transitioning to a multi-inning role, the Red Sox could really use a pitcher to step up in the late innings. Sawamura has the swing-and-miss stuff to pitch in the 8th and 9th innings, but with his lack of control and tendency to allow loud contact, it’s hard to see him as anything more than a middle reliever.

Stat Predictions: 4.02 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 10.6 K/9

Red Sox relief pitcher: Josh Taylor

The three-batter minimum rule has affected a lot of relievers since its implementation in 2020, but none more so than lefties with drastic platoon splits. Referred to as “LOOGYs,” or left-handed one-out guys, these pitchers built a career on facing a team’s best left-handed hitters and then immediately exiting before a right-handed hitter strode to the plate. Yet with the new rule forcing pitchers to face at least three batters per appearance, these arms are becoming extinct.

Josh Taylor is one of the few LOOGYs still in circulation. His hard fastball/slider combination eats up lefties, who have a career .174/.249/.230 against him. His slider in particular is one of the best in baseball. The pitch induces whiffs at a 47% rate and held batters to a .175 batting average and a .223 slugging percentage.

The thing about sliders, however, is that it is much easier to hit the pitch when it is moving towards you than moving away from you. Taylor’s slider does not fool righties at nearly the same rate, as evident by their .282/.374/.427 career slash line against him. Without a cutter or changeup to keep them honest, Taylor has no way to get right-handers out if his breaking ball is not doing the job.

Rather than develop to be more effective on righties, Taylor’s platoon splits have only grown more drastic under the new rule. Right-handed hitters had an OPS nearly 500 points higher against him than lefties last season, compared to only 130 points in 2019. In a division stacked with right-handed hitters, it’s unacceptable for Taylor to be so ineffective against such batters. As long the three-batter minimum is in place, Taylor cannot be trusted in the game’s biggest moments.

Stat Predictions: 3.57 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 10.9 K/9

Red Sox relief pitcher: Garrett Whitlock

From the moment Garrett Whitlock toed the rubber for the Red Sox last season, opposing hitters were in a lot of trouble. The seemingly overlooked Rule 5 pick from the Yankees rode a dominant spring training to a significant role in the Red Sox bullpen and finished second among rookies with at least 50 innings pitched with a 1.96 ERA. With Matt Barnes faltering down the stretch, Whitlock became Cora’s most trusted reliever down the stretch, and the rookie rewarded him with numerous big performances that helped the Red Sox advance to the ALCS.

When you watch Whitlock pitch, it’s easy to see why he’s so difficult to hit. He throws his heavy, mid-90s sinker over 50% a time, a pitch that he controls exceptionally well and is extremely difficult to square up. While that sinker may not induce many whiffs, Whitlock’s secondary pitches were all swing-and-miss offerings. His changeup, slider, and four-seam fastball all had a whiff percentage of over 30% percent.

The biggest question around Whitlock isn’t so much about his performance but rather his role. Whitlock was in the bullpen last year as he worked his way back from Tommy John Surgery, but he was brought up in the Yankees system as a starter and has the control and pitch mix to be able to face an order two or three times. The Red Sox experimented with Whitlock in the rotation this spring but ultimately decided he would be best served in a versatile, multi-inning relief role.

Whether he is starting games or coming out of the bullpen, Whitlock should be a dominant force again in 2022. His advanced metrics showed he both induced soft contact and swings-and-misses at elite rates, and he does it all with plus control. He may not repeat the sub 2.00 ERA he posted last season, but there’s no reason to expect Whitlock to be anything other than the Red Sox’s most effective reliever.

 Stat Predictions: 2.61 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 10.8 K/9

Red Sox relief pitcher: Matt Barnes

It looked like Matt Barnes had finally turned the corner in 2021. The former first-round pick has been a solid if unspectacular reliever over his first seven years in the big leagues, but he was given the closer’s job at the end of last season and ran with it. He rode improved control and elite strikeout numbers to an All-Star berth and contract extension and looked like one of the best closers in all of baseball.

Then, as quickly as Barnes had risen the ranks, it all fell apart. He was downright unusable once the calendar turned to August, posting a 10.13 ERA over the final months. His walks per nine rose from 2.25 to 7.9, and when he did throw the ball over the plate, it wasn’t pretty (.340/.450/.660). He lost so much faith with his team and manager that he was the odd man out when the postseason rolled around.

What Barnes really needed was a strong spring training to show that the end of 2021 was an aberration. All he’s done this spring, however, is inspire more worry. His numbers have looked fine enough (4 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 BB), but his fastball has been clocked in at around 93 miles per hour. Given that he has lost a full mile per hour since 2019 and saw an even more significant velocity dip down the stretch in 2021, this is cause for concern. It’s gotten to the point where even manager Alex Cora has stated that he is worried about Barnes’ fastball.

Watching Barnes is all about managing your expectations. In other words, it would be foolish to expect him to ever be an All-Star closer ever again. Barnes has shown time and time again that he is just another middling reliever: He’s had six year straight years with an ERA between 3.50 and 4.50. Barnes will still have value in a big-league bullpen, but expecting him to be a worthy closer for a contending team is a huge mistake.

Stat Predictions: 24 SV, 4.32 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 11.7 K/9

Other Red Sox Relievers

Ryan Brasier: Brasier has had an absolutely fascinating journey to the bug leagues, but has made himself into an incredible boring pitcher. There are a million other mid 90’s fastball/slider right-handed relievers, and like the rest of them, Brasier is best served in the sixth or seven innings.

Austin Davis: Davis is the possessor of a career 5.50 ERA and walks and strikes out hitters at fairly average rates.  He doesn’t have the stuff of Diekman, the control of Strahm or the swing-and-miss slider of Taylor, so his spot on the roster is tenuous at best.

Kutter Crawford: After making his major league debut as a starter last season, Crawford rode a strong spring training performance to one of the last bullpen spots. His stuff has played up upon his move to relief, topping out at 97.5 in an outing against the Pirates.

Phillips Valdez: Every team has a reliever that rides the shuttle between Triple-A and the Majors, and Valdez is that guy for the Red Sox. There’s nothing special about his profile, but he’s a functional arm that can pitch meaningless innings.

Tyler Danish: With Chris Sale getting placed on the 60-day DL, Danish was chosen to fill the last spot in the Red Sox bullpen. Given that he hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2018 and barely hits 90 on the gun, it’s hard to see exactly what the Red Sox see in him.