Boston Red Sox fans should still believe in Bobby Dalbec

Red Sox rookie Bobby Dalbec’s early season struggles won’t last

The Boston Red Sox nine-game win streak came to an end yesterday as the Minnesota Twins walked it off in a 4-3 victory. Boston was stopped just short of extending their win streak to double digits, but did make history in the process by becoming the first team in MLB history to begin a season with a losing streak of 3+ games and immediately follow it with a winning streak of 9+ games.

During their win streak, Boston led the majors in nearly every offensive category you can think of: hits, doubles, runs, RBI, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, and WAR to name a few. It wasn’t particularly close either. Boston produced a full 1.1 WAR more than the next closest team (Dodgers) over that time period and had an OPS 83 points higher than the No. 2 team (again, the Dodgers). The Red Sox offense was firing on all cylinders, or at least almost all cylinders.

Bobby Dalbec entered the 2021 season as the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox organization and the No. 85 prospect in all of baseball. He made his debut during the dismal 2020 season and was one of the lone bright spots. He exploded onto the scene, hitting a home run in just his second major league at-bat and went on to homer in five straight games the following month. He appeared in just 23 games, but still finished 3rd on the team in home runs and recorded an impressive .959 OPS. Dalbec looked primed to keep mashing in 2021 as he led the Grapefruit league in home runs this past spring. He was even voted as the fans’ choice to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2021.

Despite high hopes and lofty expectations, 2021 has not seen the rise of Bobby Dalbec as many (including myself) were expecting. In 10 games played this season he’s batting just .176, recording only 6 hits and striking out 14 times. After homering once every 8 at-bats last season and raising that rate to once every 6.7 at-bats this spring, Dalbec has yet to hit one out of the park in his 34 at-bats this year. An early season slump isn’t new for Dalbec, as he told reporters this week, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo.

“I’ve always kind of been a slow starter,” Dalbec said. “Hate to say it, but that’s just kind of the way it is. Obviously, I’d like to work that out in the future. Once I get more comfortable and settle at the beginning of the season, I start to get more comfortable.”

Dalbec did look more comfortable during this week’s series in Minnesota. He starred in Tuesday’s snowy affair going 2-for-3 with with two doubles and driving in a pair of runs. His efforts proved decisive as he drove in the tying and go-ahead runs in separate trips to the plate. Manager Alex Cora commented on Dalbec’s game-winning performance saying “it was just a matter of time,” per NESN.

“We trust the player. We trust him. We know there’s going to be a few days that he might swing and miss a lot, but we do believe that he can make adjustments and he can go the other way.”

Underlying metrics support Cora’s trust in Dalbec. Despite his underwhelming offensive production to start the year, ranking in the bottom 20% in each WOBA (a metric that measures a hitter’s overall offensive production by assigning weights to different offensive outcomes), batting average, and slugging percentage, his expected metrics tell a different story.

Dalbec’s xwOBa (a calculation of what his wOBA should be based on factors such as exit velocity and launch angle), xBA (expected batting average), and xSLG (expected slugging percentage) all rank in the top third of MLB hitters. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile in the league in barrel % this season. Based on the contact he’s making at the plate it would be expected that his numbers would be better than they currently are.

Dalbec has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball this season. His wOBA sits at .231, which is well below the league average of .313. His xwOBA, however, is .380, 50 points above the league average of .330. The gap between his wOBA and xwOBA is 150 points and that difference ranks 10th in MLB. Last year the largest difference between wOBA and xwOBA was 93 points and in 2019 (the most recent 162 game season) the largest gap was just 44 points. Dalbec’s misfortune is unlikely to persist over the course of a full season.

Such a large discrepancy between his expected output and actual performance suggests positive regression is on the horizon for Dalbec. Based on what we saw from Dalbec last season that actual output can be really impressive. As Alex Cora a wisely put it, “It’s only a matter of time”.