Red Sox infielder Bobby Dalbec is a Rookie of the Year favorite
The fans have spoken and the verdict is that a Boston Red Sox rookie is poised for a big year. MLB on FOX recently held fan voting to predict the preseason favorites for each of the major awards heading into the 2021 season and Bobby Dalbec was their choice for AL Rookie of the Year.
The results are in!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 27, 2021
MLB on FOX fans picked Bobby Dalbec to win the AL ROY award in 2021! pic.twitter.com/gZDNspIvB7
Dalbec took the league by storm when he got called up in late August of last season, blasting a home run in his major league debut. He set a franchise rookie record by hitting a home run in five consecutive games and became the first player in the modern era with a five-game home run streak within their first 10 major league games.
His eight home runs would end up as the third-most on the team despite that he only played in 23 games.
That accounted for nearly 40 percent of the shortened 60-game schedule but it’s still only 23 games, which means Dalbec retains his rookie status heading into 2021. He’s still considered a prospect, ranked third in the Red Sox system and No. 93 overall by MLB.com.
That makes Dalbec a prime candidate for Rookie of the Year. The 25-year-old has spent spring training proving that last year’s power outburst was no fluke, leading the Red Sox with seven home runs and 16 RBI this spring.
Unsurprising, Dalbec also leads the team with 19 strikeouts. His staggering 42.4 K% was the second-highest in the majors last season (minimum 90 plate appearances).
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The excessive strikeouts haven’t slowed Dalbec’s production though. He’s batting .311, the highest average on the team among players with 20+ at-bats this spring. Only Kike Hernandez (.442) owns a higher on-base percentage than Dalbec’s .392 OBP among Red Sox hitters with 30+ at-bats.
It’s hard to imagine Dalbec maintaining a lofty batting average if he doesn’t cut back on the strikeouts. Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez (.289 AVG) was the only qualified major league hitter with a strikeout rate over 30.0% who produced a batting average of at least .260 last season. Hernandez was also aided by an unsustainable .348 BABIP though. We can’t count on Dalbec replicating that, which makes repeating his .263 average from last year over the course of a full season seem optimistic.
The six walks he’s drawn this spring are the third-most on the team, helping to prop up his OBP. An above-average walk rate is an encouraging sign that Dalbec isn’t completely devoid of plate discipline. He’s swinging for the fences when he sees a pitch in the zone but he’s willing to take a pitch if he doesn’t like it. The Red Sox will live with a disappointing batting average if he walks enough to sport a solid OBP to go along with his enticing power potential.
Dalbec’s massive raw power makes him a threat for 40+ homers even at this early stage of his career. As long as he maintains a serviceable batting average, Dalbec will be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate with that type of run production to build his case upon.