Here’s what it might cost the Red Sox to sign Jake Odorizzi
Adding reinforcements to the starting rotation is one of the top priorities for the Boston Red Sox this offseason. While the rumor mill has tied several pitchers to their list of targets, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Red Sox have serious interest in Jake Odorizzi.
The Red Sox have serious interest in RHP Jake Odorizzi, per source. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was part of the Rays front office when Tampa Bay acquired Odorizzi in December 2012, so there's plenty of familiarity between the two.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 5, 2021
Assuming that the numerous holes the Red Sox need to fill essentially counts them out of the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes, Odorizzi represents one of the best available options in the next tier of this free-agent class. If the Red Sox have a budget in mind for what they want to spend on starting pitching so that they still have room to address other positions, is Odorizzi a viable option that they can afford?
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, teams who have been in touch with Odorizzi’s representatives say the righty is looking for a three-year deal worth somewhere between $36 million and $42 million.
MLB Trade Rumors predicted Odorizzi would receive a three-year, $39 million deal, which falls right in the middle of the range he’s reportedly seeking.
The average annual value that would reach as much as $14 million might seem a bit steep considering only 25 starting pitchers are currently set to earn at least that much in 2021. However, keep in mind that some of the most talented young arms in the game remain years away from free agency. That’s simply how baseball works. Players get scraps in their first few years and gradually earn more money through the arbitration process before finally getting the opportunity to cash in a as a free-agent.
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Odorizzi doesn’t need to be one of the 25 best starters in baseball to be worthy of that salary. Several of the pitchers raking in more than that each year certainly aren’t in that conversation, including Nathan Eovaldi ($17 million per year).
2020 was a lost season for Odorizzi, as he started the year on the injured list with a back injury and later missed nearly a month after being hit by a batted ball. He ended up tossing only 13 2/3 innings over four starts while posting a career-worst 6.59 ERA.
The poor production can hardly be held against him considering the small sample and the injuries he dealt with. Odorizzi is fully recovered, he’s never had any arm issues and he made 28+ starts in each of the previous six seasons.
Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 when he won 15 games with a 3.51 ERA and career-best 10.1 K/9. While that can be considered his breakout year, Odorizzi was consistently a solid middle of the rotation pitcher for several years before emerging as a star. From 2014-2018, Odorizzi owned a winning record to go along with a 3.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.
It’s not quite ace-caliber production but it’s a strong resume for teams in need of a No. 2 or 3 starter. That’s exactly what the Red Sox need to supplement Eduardo Rodriguez at the top of the rotation with Chris Sale eventually expected to join them. A salary of $13-14 million per year is very reasonable for that role.
The Red Sox payroll currently sits at about $166.495 million after the team agreed to deals with most of their arbitration-eligible players last month, according to MassLive’s Christopher Smith. That puts them about $43.5 million below the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold. That’s without accounting for Rafael Devers, the lone arbitration-eligible player they have yet to agree with. Devers is projected to earn $6.3 million, so let’s call it about $37 million in space if the Red Sox are going to avoid the tax.
Signing Odorizzi to a deal at the peak of the range he’s asking for carves out a significant chunk of that payroll space, leaving them with about $23 million. It’s not enough to chase George Springer but Boston could still afford a moderately priced center fielder and still have room to bolster the bullpen.
The Red Sox have a clear need for a starting pitcher of this caliber. The asking price is fair and the Red Sox can afford it while leaving room to address other needs, even if they intend to remain below the tax threshold. Odorizzi isn’t their only target but he’s on the short list for being among the priorities at the position.