The Red Sox are interested in Japanese pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano
The search for starting pitching could take the Boston Red Sox across the globe to Japan where right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano has landed on their radar.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Sugano has been posted by the Yomiuri Giants of the Nippon Professional Baseball league, allowing the Japanese star to move overseas to sign with an MLB team. The deadline to complete an agreement under the MLB-NPB posting system is Jan. 7 at 5 p.m. ET.
BREAKING: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been posted by the Yomiuri Giants, effective at 8 a.m. ET Tuesday. Deadline to complete terms of an agreement is 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 7. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 7, 2020
The Red Sox have done their homework on him and “intend to be aggressive in their pursuit” of Sugano, according to Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. They won’t be alone, as the San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees are also interested.
Sugano earned the Sawamura Award as NPB’s top pitcher in 2017 and 2018. He went 14-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 137 1/3 innings this year. In his eight-year NPB career, Sugano is 101-49 with a 2.32 ERA and 1,214 strikeouts in 1,360 innings.
Scouts have referred to Sugano as a crafty pitcher with elite control. He relies on a low 90s fastball with late movement and a sharp slider while also throwing a forkball and changeup that can be above-average pitches.
He has an impressive statistical resume but Sugano will face a much stiffer challenge by making the leap to MLB so we can’t expect those same numbers to translate here. His NPB production is comparable to Kenta Maeda and Masahiro Tanaka, both of whom were stars in Japan before finding success in MLB. The comparison suggests that Sugano isn’t poised to dominate as the surefire ace he was in Japan but he should settle in as a strong middle of the rotation option.
That being said, Sugano isn’t without risk. The 31-year-old is several years older than Maeda or Tanaka were when they arrived in MLB. That has to be factored in when determining the length of the deal and projecting how he’ll perform at this stage of his career.
Money will also be a factor. Under the terms of the posting system, the Giants will receive a release fee equal to 20 percent of Sugano’s first $25 million in guaranteed salary; 17.5 percent of the next $25 million; and 15 percent of any amount beyond $50 million.
In other words, if the Red Sox sign Sugano to a 2-year, $25 million deal then it will actually cost them $30 million. The system is essentially designed to force teams to overpay unless the player exceeds expectations.
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The last time the Red Sox acquired a Japanese player of this stature was 2007 when they won the bid with a massive $51 million posting fee for the rights to negotiate a contract with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox got a couple of strong seasons from Dice-K before his career went off the rails so the contract they signed him to was fairly reasonable for the production he provided. When you factor in the money they paid for the posting fee though, Matsuzaka proved to be a horrible value.
The system has changed since then so the posting fee is unlikely to reach that staggering total but the concerns of the fee preventing Sugano from living up to the value of the money it will cost to sign him remains valid.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Sugano isn’t worth the investment given the circumstances. Boston desperately needs an upgrade to their starting rotation which Sugano is capable of providing. He’s arguably the second-best starter on the market behind Trevor Bauer, who will cost significantly more money in addition to the team’s second-highest draft pick since he declined a qualifying offer. The market is saturated with mid-rotation arms but none have Sugano’s upside and they each come with their own set of warts and warning signs.
The Red Sox can find better values in free agency or the trade market but if they are shooting for upside, Sugano might be their best non-Bauer bet.