The Red Sox should call the Phillies about starter Zack Wheeler
The Boston Red Sox are scanning the free-agent market for upgrades to their woeful pitching staff but the more appealing options potentially could come from a trade. Any time another team puts an appealing starter on the trading block it should grab our attention and the latest rumor comes from Philadelphia.
According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Phillies have communicated to other teams that they are facing a financial crunch and are open to offers for right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler.
Bryce Harper‘s massive contract wouldn’t be easy to move and the Phillies reportedly haven’t shown any indication they are ready to move on from the former MVP, leaving Wheeler as their clearest path to payroll relief. The second-highest paid player on their roster is only one year into the five-year, $118 million deal he signed last winter. He’s owed $22.5 million next season and counts for about $23.6 million for luxury tax purposes.
Wheeler was excellent during the abbreviated 2020 season, going 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to finish 12th on the NL Cy Young ballot.
A dip to a career-low 6.7 K/9 is slightly concerning but it certainly wasn’t due to declining velocity since his 97.4 mph average on his fastball was a career-high, as was his 10.8 swinging strike percentage. Wheeler had struck out close to a batter per inning in previous seasons so we should expect his strikeout rate to jump back to that level in a full season.
While control was an issue in his first few seasons, Wheeler has improved his walk rate in each of the last three years, culminating in a career-best 2.0 BB/9 this year. He’s typically been stingy with allowing home runs and that was the case more than ever this season when he led the league with a 0.4 HR/9.
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Philadelphia’s desperation to shed salary combined with a saturated free-agent market should reduce their leverage in trade talks. There should be interest around the league in a pitcher of Wheeler’s caliber but many teams could pivot to the cheaper mid-tier options in free agency. Philly obviously won’t give him away for scraps in a salary dump but even a Boston team with a thin farm system should be able to assemble a competitive trade package.
The Red Sox have money to spend after resetting the luxury tax penalties. They can absorb Wheeler’s contract and still have the payroll flexibility to add an outfielder plus a bullpen piece or two.
Wheeler’s upside is higher than any starter available in free agency outside of Trevor Bauer, who will be much more expensive and cost a team their second-highest draft pick since he declined a qualifying offer. If the value of that draft pick is relatively similar to the package of prospects the Phillies ask for, saving the money by trading for Wheeler is a viable pivot to splurging on Bauer.
With uncertainty surrounding Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale in the wake of lost seasons, Wheeler would add some much needed consistency to stabilize the rotation. If Boston’s co-aces return to form at some point next season, Wheeler could slot in behind them as a very strong No. 3 option, turning last year’s weakness into a strength.