Andrew Benintendi’s make or break season is off to a horrible start

Time is running out for Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi.

Even before COVID-19 completely changed the calculus of the 2020 Major League Baseball season, there was one thing most Boston Red Sox fans were united on: Andrew Benintendi needed to have a good season. After his excellent rookie year and the first half of the 2018 season, it’s been all downhill for the Red Sox everyday left fielder.

Things came to a relative head this past offseason when he and the team were far apart in their assessment of his worth, leading to salary arbitration. Benintendi won that battle and the accompanying pay bump from $717,500 in 2019 to over $4 million before he signed a 2-year, $10 million deal with the team.

With that huge increase in pay comes a huge increase in expectations for his play, especially after his dismal 2019 season. A quick look at his numbers shows the decline since his rookie year

2017: .271 BA, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 70 BB, 20 SB, .352 OBP, .776 OPS.
2018: .290 BA, 16 HR, 87 RBI, 71 BB, 21 SB, .366 OBP, .830 OPS.
2019: .266 BA, 13 HR, 68 RBI, 59 BB, 10 SB, .343 OBP, .774 OPS.

Even worse, if you break the 2018 season down into pre- and post-All-Star break, this is what he did:

2018 first half: .297 BA, 14 HR, 57 RBI, 49 BB, 17 SB, .380 OBP, .897 OPS.
2018 second half: .279 BA, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 22 BB, 4 SB, .343 OBP, .727 OPS.

That means that since the 2018 All-Star break, Benintendi has hit just 15 home runs while hitting for decreased average, power, slugging, and stealing fewer bases (while increasing his already frustrating penchant for running into outs on the basepaths).

The start to his 2020 season after just three games is equally dismal. In just one series against the lowly Baltimore Orioles (who took two of three at Fenway Park, by the way, but that’s another story), Benintendi is 0-for-10 with five strikeouts, two walks, one run scored, no stolen bases, and one RBI. Granted, three games is an incredibly small sample size and in a normal 162-game season, would only represent 1.85% of the season.

However, in the shortened 60-game slate, it’s 5% of the season (corresponding to 8.1 games over 162) and in a year where he has to know he’s playing for his job, it’s not a great start. Beyond the poor numbers, the eyeball test shows that he just looks lost. Contrast that with his new teammate Alex Verdugo, who knows that with all of his baggage that he needs to have a fast start to win over Red Sox fans.

In two games, Verdugo is 2-for-8 with two strikeouts and a run scored and he’s looked like he worked hard during quarantine and came ready to play. I don’t know how hard Benintendi worked during his downtime and I won’t unfairly cast aspersions, but the contrast between the two (especially given how similar their player profiles are) is stark.

The conventional wisdom heading into this season was that free-agent-to-be Jackie Bradley was the lame duck and the post-Mookie Betts outfield of the near future was Benintendi, Verdugo, and Kevin Pillar. However, with his poor play and time rapidly running out on his being able to prove that he can be the player everyone thinks he should be, it may be Bradley who stays and Benintendi who finds himself elsewhere soon.