How will the Red Sox fare in 2020?
We’re just a few short days away from Opening Day, Red Sox Nation! And with that comes the unenviable task of predicting just how well, or poor, Boston will perform this season. With there only being 60 games to play to earn your way into the postseason, there’s literally zero room for a misstep. At least in a normal season there’s time to rebound if a team hits a cold spell, but not this year.
So, just where in the standings will the Red Sox fall in this calamity of a campaign? To really break it down and make a prediction we have to think about the new division they’ll be playing in. Long gone are the days of the traditional AL East. This season will be the debut of the newly minted MLB East, combining the AL and NL Eastern divisions. With that brings some heavy hitters from the NL side of the fence while also adding some easy wins as well.
How many wins do the #RedSox finish with in 2020?
— BoSox Injection (@BoSoxInjection) July 19, 2020
I recently asked Red Sox Nation just where they thought the team was going to finish. I gave four answers to choose: 20, 25, 30, and 35 wins. This would essentially give the squad a pair of under .500 possibilities as well as one above. Having just a 60 game sample size means that was once a horrible record (30-40 wins), could earn you a shot at October if the chips fall just right.
When the schedule was first announced I took a couple of days to really break down the teams Boston will be facing and just what their realistic odds were going to be. This isn’t going to be an easy season by any means and it may be a miracle if the Red Sox can get to the postseason. After looking at the number of games against each opponent and where the games will be played, I could only get them to a 32-28 record. Not pretty.
Now, this could be a doom and gloom analysis on my behalf but I just can’t find any other route than just over .500. With the Yankees, Rays, Nats, Braves, and a wily Mets squad staring down the barrel at them, it’s going to be a challenging sprint to the playoffs. I also did my breakdown well before we knew of anyone testing positive or opting-out of the season, adding another wrinkle.
As we all know Darwinzon Hernandez, Josh Taylor, Bobby Dalbec, and Eduardo Rodriguez all tested positive for COVID. Since the positive results all have shown a clean bill of health and returned to camp except for Hernandez. For Taylor, it shouldn’t take long to get up to speed as he’s a reliever and doesn’t need the high inning count. Dalbec has already shown that he’s ready to go for the season and has been confident at the plate and in the field. The big one here is Rodriguez.
E-Rod got on the hill on Saturday and tossed a successful bullpen session. Ron Roenicke’s plan is to have him on the COVID IL to start the season while he builds up his stamina. The goal is to use bullpen sessions, live batting practice, and sim games to get Eddy to where he needs to be.
It’ll be in Boston’s best interests to not rush him, especially after he discussed his illness and recovery. Give him the time to build his arm back up and then unleash him on the division for the last 2/3 of the season.
Beyond that, the Red Sox have only had one player opt-out of 2020 and that was Collin McHugh. If you follow the hurler on social media then you know how excited he was to pitch for Boston and especially at Fenway Park. His decision to not play this season seems more so about his elbow not recovering as well as he would like, and not wanting to take a roster spot if he can’t contribute. A totally respectable decision by the righty.
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Let’s get back to the poll, seeing as that’s why we’re all here. A majority of Red Sox Nation that answered the call came in at 30 wins (34.1%) on the year, right around what I had predicted as well. A close second was 35 wins (30.6%), those are our optimistic bunch, we’ll be needing them if this season starts slow. Then we had 25 wins (18.8%) and 20 wins (16.5%) bring up the rear, the pessimistic and yet possibly most realist portion of the fanbase.
I’m not going to sugarcoat things and tell you all that we’re going to go 45-15 this season and cruise to another World Series title. Could it happen? Sure! And I could also hit the Powerball and buy into the ownership group. Sometimes it’s just fun to say things. It’s not dramatic to say that 2020 will be an all-out sprint to the postseason. There won’t be any lulls or drawn-out portions of this campaign.
Literally every game will matter, for once in our baseball lives, every game matters. 37-23 could get you into the playoffs while 35-25 gets you sent home early. For the Red Sox, they’ll need to come out of the gates charging and they have the power to do it. The offense will be there, as it always is. It’ll just be up to the pitching to not give back the runs that Boston puts on the board.