Red Sox stat predictions for the shortened 2020 MLB season
With the MLB season just about three weeks away, it’s time to start predicting what Red Sox players statistics might look like in a shortened season. The stats this season are going to be abnormal and quite different but it’s important to note that in a shortened season anything can happen. Here are my statistical leaders in each of the major categories as well as a few other smaller predictions.
Red Sox Home Run Leader – J.D. Martinez
J.D. Martinez has pretty decisively led the Red Sox in home runs each of the past two seasons. He clobbered 36 a short year ago and 43 during the 2018 championship season. In the first 60 games of last season, Martinez was tied with Xander Bogaerts for the team lead with 12 home runs.
On July 23rd, Martinez ranked second with Rafael Devers with 20 homers, just one shy of Bogaerts. From July 23rd to September 23rd Bogaerts and Devers hit 11, while Martinez hit 15. In 2018, he already had hit 29 home runs by July 23rd and was up to 41 by September 23rd. Opening day this season is July 23rd and the 60-game schedule should take the MLB season to the end of September.
The only concern about J.D. is whether or not he’ll hit home runs consistently. In a 20-game stretch last season from September 8th-27th, Martinez went without a home run. It’ll be a close race, but Martinez seems to be at his best during the summer months.
Prediction: 14 home runs for J.D Martinez
Red Sox RBI Leader – Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts had the luxury of hitting behind Rafael Devers and Mookie Betts in the Red Sox lineup most of last season. He took advantage, knocking in 117 which led the club and tied for 7th among all major leaguers. After the first 60 games last season, Xander led the Red Sox in RBI’s with 40. Devers and Martinez each had 35 or less. The Red Sox had him hitting in different parts of the order but this season he’ll likely hit third. Andrew Benintendi and Devers should set the table for him.
Prediction: 42 runs batted in for Xander Bogaerts
Red Sox Runs Leader – Xander Bogaerts
Benintendi and Devers should be in the same ballpark as Bogaerts. However, Xander’s ability to draw walks consistently is what separates himself. Bogaerts finished last season with 110 runs and walked 76 times with an OBP of .384. He placed third among Red Sox players in runs and second behind Mookie Betts in walks and OBP.
Also, he finished second in hits just 11 shy of Devers who finished with 201. He’ll have a lot opportunities hitting third in the order just ahead of Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Michael Chavis, and Alex Verdugo.
Prediction: 40 runs for Xander Bogaerts
Red Sox Batting Average Leader – Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers improved substantially last season and his plate discipline was a big contributing factor. His average improved from a mediocre .240 to an elite .311 in 2019. He struck out 121 times in 490 plate appearances in 2018 and in 2019, Devers struck out 119 times in 702 plate appearances. Keep in mind he’s still just 23 years old.
Prediction: .323 average for Rafael Devers
Red Sox Stolen Base Leader – Jose Peraza
There aren’t many guys on the Red Sox who can run. Jose Peraza and Kevin Pillar are the only guys on the roster that have put up consistent stolen base numbers throughout their careers, but Peraza is going to be called upon as a runner in critical situations.
He recorded over 20 stolen bases in three consecutive seasons with the Reds from 2016-2018. Kevin Pillar’s playing time is up in the air especially with Verdugo back and healthy.
Prediction: 8 stolen bases for Jose Peraza
Red Sox Wins and Strikeouts Leader – Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez is far and away the clear ace of the Red Sox staff. Over the last two seasons, he’s finished with a combined record of 32-11 and he’s the only starter who started a full season last year with the Red Sox.
The team signed Martin Perez along with Collin McHugh and brought up Ryan Weber to fill in as well. Rodriguez stuck out a new career-high of 213 last season. No starter is going to come close to his numbers in 2020.
Prediction: 5 wins and 83 strikeouts for Eduardo Rodriguez
Red Sox ERA/WHIP/Saves Leader – Brandon Workman
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Brandon Workman is quietly one of the Red Sox best players and he’s arguably a top-20 reliever in the Majors. Last season, Workman finished with a 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 16 saves. Perhaps his biggest strength is his ability to limit hits and home runs. In 71.2 IP last season, he only allowed 29 hits and 1 home run. If his command is improved, he’s got the chance to be one of the best closers in baseball this season.
Prediction: 2.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 12 saves for Brandon Workman
Finally, here are some more predictions for the 2020 season:
Sleepers: Nathan Eovaldi, Collin McHugh, and Andrew Benintendi
Busts: Ryan Weber, Martin Perez, and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Record: 32-28
MVP: Xander Bogaerts
With training camp kicking off this past week it’s hard to tell just exactly what we’re going to get from this team. The Red Sox were looking good as spring training progressed but three months off could derail the comeback. Boston has the tough task of performing in a shortened season while trying to erase the memory of a poor last campaign. If these predictions hold up, then it’s safe to say the Sox may be back in the postseason.