The Houston Astros are aiming to lock up George Springer to an extension that would take a potential Boston Red Sox free agent target off the board.
The Boston Red Sox traded away their star outfielder when they couldn’t convince him to sign an extension. The Houston Astros are trying to avoid the same mistake.
According to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Astros owner Jim Crane has “made it clear” that he wants to work out a long-term deal with outfielder George Springer before he hits free agency after this season.
If Houston manages to lock up Springer it would weaken a relatively thin free agent class. The clear cream of the crop is Mookie Betts but most teams won’t have the financial resources to entertain him with a serious offer. Springer isn’t Betts but the three-time All-Star is a viable alternative at a more attainable price.
The average annual value of the deal Springer will command might not be all that far off from Betts’ territory but the total amount should be far less. Springer is three years older, hitting the market at the age of 31. He’ll get a shorter deal, which is more suitable to risk-averse clubs that feel uneasy about committing too many years to a player, no matter how talented.
The Red Sox will presumably make a run at bringing Betts back and should be ready to remove the restraints on their spending habits once they dip below the luxury tax this year. There will be competition for the former MVP though. Their attempts to work out an extension prior to the trade that shipped him to Los Angeles shows they are willing to pay Betts a hefty salary but they have their limits. Boston will have to draw the line somewhere and if another team is willing to blow by that figure then the Red Sox will be forced to pivot elsewhere.
Springer would be the ideal place to pivot. He’s coming off a career year in which he hit .292 with a .974 OPS, 39 home runs and 96 RBI. Hitting primarily out of the lead-off spot makes those power numbers even more impressive. It was enough to earn him his second career Sliver Slugger award and he finished seventh on the AL MVP ballot.
There’s reason to believe the interest would be mutual if Springer reaches free agency. He’s a Connecticut native and a UCONN alum so the Red Sox could try to appeal to his New England roots. Springer is also close friends with Matt Barnes, making the reliever a useful recruiting asset.
Unfortunately, Boston won’t get a chance to make that pitch if the Astros lock him up to an extension first. There’s no indication that the sides are close to a deal yet but Houston isn’t going to let him go without a fight.
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If Springer isn’t an option then Boston may struggle to find another solution in free agency. Michael Brantley is the only other outfielder in the next crop of free-agents who produced more than 4.0 WAR last season but he’ll be 33 years old. Joc Pederson came relatively close (3.1 WAR) but he’s a platoon player who is virtually unplayable against lefties. Marcell Ozuna is a few years removed from his last All-Star campaign and last season was his worst since 2015.
The Red Sox could lose Jackie Bradley Jr. to free agency, creating the need for another outfielder. J.D. Martinez could opt-out of his contract and if he leaves then they’ll need some star power to replace him with. Those underwhelming alternatives on the market aren’t going to cut it.
Removing Springer from the free-agent pool could put more pressure on the Red Sox to chase Betts. There aren’t any legitimate ace pitchers to target and the other top bats on the market play positions where Boston is already set. The outfield is the most realistic place for them to spend next winter and if Springer isn’t available then it’s Betts or bust.
This past offseason was frustrating for fans because the Red Sox didn’t have money to spend. That shouldn’t be a problem next year but their dilemma in the upcoming free agency period might be that there aren’t enough desirable options to spend on.