The San Diego Padres have reportedly discussed a potential trade for Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts but it’s hard to see how the sides are a match.
Just when Boston Red Sox fans thought the coast was clear, a fresh wave of trade rumors washes over us. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the ambitious San Diego Padres have discussed a trade centered around Mookie Betts.
The Padres have one of the top-ranked farm systems in baseball so if any club has the assets to pry Betts out of Boston, it’s San Diego. Yet a deal seems increasingly ridiculous the more you read into the report.
"“Recent talks between the teams have focused on sending a significant amount of prospect talent and outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to sources,” writes Lin. “Multiple people familiar with the discussions characterized an agreement as unlikely, and the industry consensus is that Betts will be in a Red Sox uniform on Opening Day.”"
The Padres are already over budget for 2020, which explains why they would try to pawn off the $61 million owed to the underachieving Myers over the next three seasons. That contract is an albatross for a player with a barely above-average 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+ over the last three seasons. There’s a reason why the Padres were rumored to be offering prospects to teams willing to take Myers off their hands.
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Why would the Red Sox even consider taking back a bad contract in any deal involving Betts? Their main incentive for trading any of their top players is to shed payroll. The $22.5 million that Myers is owed next season isn’t significantly less than Betts’ $27 million salary. Granted, Myers only counts for $13.83 million against the luxury tax based on the average annual value of his contract. Saving approximately $13 million still isn’t nearly enough to get Boston below the tax line though.
Can you imagine this nightmare scenario? Boston punts on the 2020 season by trading away their best player, loses any leverage they may have had in free agent negotiations with him next winter, and still ends up paying the tax!
Restocking the farm system would be Boston’s other incentive for entertaining Betts offers. The Padres have five prospects on MLB.com’s top 100 list. Unfortunately, the report from The Athletic suggests that San Diego’s best assets are off the table.
Left-handed pitcher Mackenzie Gore, the gem of the Padres farm system, certainly won’t be in the deal. The Padres might be desperate to make a splash but they aren’t foolish enough to give up the No. 4 prospect in baseball for a one-year rental, even if it’s an MVP-caliber year from Betts.
The Padres could still build an impressive package around outfielder Taylor Trammel (No. 28), right-hander Luis Patino (No. 30), shortstop CJ Abrams (No. 45), or catcher Luis Campusano (No. 86). It should require at least two of those four prospects if the Red Sox are asked to take back Myers in the deal.
While the Padres are capable of assembling the type of package that would get Chaim Bloom’s attention, it’s not worth it from Boston’s perspective unless they are blown away by the offer or it gets them out of luxury tax jail. Throw Chris Paddack in the mix and agree to take David Price‘s contract and now you have our attention! Sorry, that’s not happening.
The sides appear to be nowhere close to an agreement, which probably means they will cool off quickly. It’s still frustrating to hear the Red Sox are taking calls on Betts after Bloom stated that he expects Betts to still be here by Opening Day. I suppose it doesn’t hurt to listen – you never know when you’ll get an offer you can’t refuse. At this point, there’s little reason to believe such an offer for Betts is on the horizon.