Darwinzon Hernandez was absolutely electric in 2019. His strikeouts rate was absolutely insane – 16.9 K/9! While he did get knocked around quite a bit (4.45 ERA), his advanced metrics show a different side.
He had a 2.75 FIP, which if you compare to his 4.45 ERA, suggests he was very unlucky and perhaps his ERA is a little unjustified. No matter what the statistics say, he definitely passes the eye test.
He has a fastball nearing 98 miles per hour, and he can mow down hitters with his off-speed pitches. He struck out nearly two-thirds of the batters he faced which shows that he definitely has the potential to take over as the Red Sox closer in 2020. He could be a younger, more affordable version of Craig Kimbrel.
When Hernandez was in the minor leagues, he was used as a dominant starting pitcher. He was transferred to the bullpen when he was moved from Pawtucket to Boston. Now, with the Red Sox in need of a fifth starter to fill the vacancy left by Rick Porcello, it seems to make sense to move Hernandez back to the rotation. However, there are some negative effects by making a move like that.
One, it would expose the Red Sox bullpen. Hernandez was trusted with high leverage innings and that would increase the workload of pitchers such as Matt Barnes and Brandon Workman, both of whom need to be fresh for October.
Also, Hernandez is one of the few lefties in the Red Sox bullpen. If he were to be moved to the rotation, Josh Taylor be the lone lefty in the pen. Matching up with lefties would be critical if a postseason appearance were to occur in 2020.
Lastly, Hernandez hasn’t proved he can be a consistent bullpen piece, definitely not in a starter’s role. He struggled with control (7.7 BB/9) and his ERA reflects that. Hernandez likely needs more major-league experience (out of the bullpen) before he can even be considered to be a key part of the rotation.
As you can see, Hernandez is very important to the Red Sox bullpen and should stay there. With his potential, he surely has the ability to be one of the best late-inning relievers in baseball. Who knows, perhaps by seasons end, if Hernandez has performed up to his capabilities, then he may find himself as the 2020 closer for the Boston Red Sox.